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Published on December 14, 2007

Several surveys and forecasts by leading pollsters have come up with the same result: the PPP will win by a landslide.

Because the election is the only means for the faction of deposed premier Thaksin Shinawatra to regain power, the PPP, under Thaksin's shadow, believes it is delivering the right strategies to attain its goal.

Currently, PPP leader Samak Sundaravej and Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva are the only contenders to become the next prime minister. However, the PPP has made it clear to voters that the two leaders do not represent themselves in this election campaign.

It has become clear to Thaksin's supporters in recent weeks that they should vote for PPP candidates and back Samak to be the new premier if they want the former Thai Rak Thai chief to return home with honour.

A landslide victory would give Thaksin legitimacy to try to counter the corruption charges that he and his family members face. Moreover, it would be like a slap in the face for the coup leaders, who claim an overthrow was the only way to oust an evil leader like Thaksin.

A number of other parties' House candidates in rural constituencies have tried to deceive pro-Thaksin voters that they represent the deposed premier, but the PPP has launched a clear message: "Vote PPP to bring Thaksin home."

The party is saying Thaksin needs them to pave the way for his journey back to the kingdom after living in exile for more than a year since the coup on September 19, 2006.

To remind voters of those involved in a plot to oust elected premier Thaksin, the PPP portrays Abhisit as a nominee of Thaksin's opponents, saying they fully back the Democrats to prevent the return of Thaksin.

PPP warns that if Abhisit is picked as the new premier, post-election politics will see many of Thaksin's opponents, including possibly some of the coup leaders, take key roles in the government. If this happens, it says any chance of Thaksin "receiving justice" will end.

The offensive by the PPP coincides with a recent move by Thaksin.

Whether or not Thaksin intends to play a role to boost the PPP campaign, he has again returned to the media spotlight. Last week, while he was in Hong Kong, the former PM gave interviews to Reuters and some Thai-language newspapers.

The December 23 poll, he said, was a significant step to restore Thailand's democracy - and all parties should accept the result.

He suggested forming a national government made up of all elected parties as part of a move toward national reconciliation.

In other words, Thaksin is indirectly telling the voters he would not take revenge if the PPP manage to lead or be part of the government.

Moreover, millions of VCDs were distributed recently in the Northeast. They contain a controversial undated clip, in which Thaksin urges his supporters to choose the PPP.

A key PPP member, who refused to be named, said his party would definitely win the election, and so would avoid any circumstances that could cause legal trouble while campaigning.

Its campaign would focus only on promoting policies and schemes delivered during the six years that the two Thaksin governments had power, the member said.

With the PPP convinced it will triumph, it is now looking beyond December 23.

The party has prepared to handle situations that could prevent it from assuming power. They include a plan for "some other parties" to form a coalition government with the winning PPP, and any attempt to disband the PPP before or after the election.

The party is seeking public sympathy and sending a strong message that all parties should accept the poll results as the PPP is sure it will. If it was prevented from forming a new government, there could be a new crisis, which could turn into social unrest in the worst case.

But while the PPP believes it is on the right track, some observers warn that the party's strategies could backfire. They speculate that a number of swing electorates might turn to choose rival parties because they do not want to see a new round of confrontation if the Thaksin faction manages to resume power.

Political Desk

 The Nation