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Published on December 5, 2007

Somehow, his latest defiant outburst - "If I'm to become prime minister, who dares stop me?" - sounds like a statement of extreme confidence. Even if the Interior Ministry's election result projections have a margin of error of plus or minus 20, his People Power Party will still be sitting pretty on the evening of December 23.

The disclosure of the ministry's survey, which seemed rather credible given that this is an agency most familiar with the country's elections, has coincided with another piece of good news. That the Matchima Thipataya Party has started to unravel will only benefit the PPP, due to the obvious reason that Prachai Leophairatana's party is competition for rural support. All of a sudden, three weeks before the election, Samak has to be taken very seriously.

What has gone wrong for the Democrats, who, according to the survey, will win fewer than 130 seats? It's more about nothing having improved for them rather than the party making any mistakes. The situation now looks very much like when they lost a Bangkok gubernatorial election in the mid-1980s to Chamlong Srimuang, who elected to play a sympathy card and stuck with it to the very end to devastating effect.

It's fair to say that if the PPP's sympathy card will lead to a landslide success, it will be in spite of Samak, not because of him. His brutal outspokenness may be charming to some, but it's easier for arrogance to backfire. If the PPP wins the general election, only one conclusion can be drawn: Thaksin Shinawatra's clout and popularity remain impregnable. In many northeastern constituencies, it has been a clear-cut case of poor men campaigning to help their "champion".

From most polls and estimates so far, the PPP stands to sweep at least 170 seats. Optimistic projections raise the number up to the vicinity of 200. This means the Democrats require a very strong alliance with the other key players if they want to make Samak leader of the biggest opposition party in Thai history.

The problem, as far as the Democrats are concerned, is that a resounding PPP triumph will unshackle the likes of Banharn Silapa-acha. The Chart Thai leader will no longer be bound by the unspoken you-can't-support-Thaksin rule. Banharn may be condemned by some academics, but his constituents won't even care. On Monday, Samak gave this blatantly honest message to Banharn: "The Democrats won't give you the prime minister's post, and I won't, either. But will it be nicer to join someone who never dug up dirt on your ancestors?"

The best the Democrats can do is gun for a close runners-up spot, which will give them considerable legitimacy to compete with the PPP to become the core of the post-election coalition government.

And under current circumstances, it's a must for the Democrats to win impressively in the capital. If they lose to the PPP in Bangkok or merely edge Samak's party in the city, such legitimacy will simply be out of reach.

One may argue that attaching so much importance to how Bangkok votes is unfair. But the point here is that the Democrats don't have much to gain if they dominate the capital - but they have everything to lose otherwise. The PPP, on the other hand, has nothing to lose if it concedes the capital, but will have everything to gain if it manages to grab half of the cake.

Democrat insiders are saying that the most the party can withstand is letting the PPP win one-third of Bangkok seats. Anything more than that, and Thailand's oldest party most likely will have to sit in the opposition bloc once again.

The race to Government House, therefore, may end right there on the night of December 23, in the event of a PPP landslide and strong showing in Bangkok. It might be extended beyond the New Year festivities, however, if the margin is narrower between the top two and the Democrats regain a firm foothold in the capital.

But what's really standing between Samak and his decades-old ambition to serve as Thailand's chief executive?

There are pundits who believe that even if the PPP comfortably wins the election, the chances of a last-minute surprise - one which is not initiated by the Democrats - cannot be ruled out. If he is generally perceived to be too much of a loose cannon or divisive figure, a most intriguing conspiracy might develop in the new Parliament involving PPP members themselves.

Talk of a surprise prime ministerial nomination has only been in the form of whispers. They sure will rumble soon, although such a phenomenon can be interpreted either way: it's a sign of desperation among Samak's opponents, or "there is no smoke without fire".

 Tulsathit Taptim

The Nation