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Published on December 3, 2007

Among thousands of government leaders, diplomats, officials and academics will be some 40 representatives from Thailand, its largest official delegation sent to a climate-change summit.

Two dozen more from the country's universities, re-search institutions, private corporations and non-governmental organisations will participate.

"We are more ready to participate than ever," declared Dr Prasertsuk Chamorn-marn, a delegation leader from the Office of Natural Resources and Environ-mental Policy and Planning.

"We studied the agenda carefully and solicited opinions from scientists and stakeholders outside the government on where we should stand on the negotiation table."

 The 2007 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali will be the first major gathering since the release of new findings by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in February. These confirmed with very high probability that industrial economies and lifestyles were fuelling global warming, and a major environmental crisis will be upon us unless we act quickly.

Among key issues concerning Thailand are adaptation to climate change and access to adaptation funds.

Assuming impact from climate change is inevitable, because of the accumulation of carbon dioxide since the Industrial Revolution in the 1800s, those affected are looking for cash to help them live with the new climate regime. This may include frequent, extreme weather events.

"Climate change is now an undeniable threat, but it's also an opportunity for us to change the way we live and do business," says Buntoon Srethasirote, director of the Multilateral Environmental Agreements Watch Project of the Thailand Research Fund. It has sent five representatives to Bali.

"The way for us to survive is to look beyond the boundaries of individual national benefits and go to Bali with a common goal to reverse our rate of carbon emissions."

The principal concern is that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are nearing tipping point, where significant climate change is anticipated.

The magic number is very small. Carbon dioxide makes up just 0.045 per cent - that is less than half of one tenth of one per cent, or 450 parts per million - of all gasses in our atmosphere. But it is rising fast and, if left unchecked, will have a catastrophic impact on our climate.

It is estimated that in 2005, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere were 0.038 per cent - or 380 parts per million. With concentrations rising at more than 3 per cent a year, we can expect to be in the danger zone within the next four to five years.

The Bali meeting will mark 10 years since the introduction of the Kyoto Protocol, the first international agreement designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Hailed in 1997 as a major achievement, it has come to symbolise mounting diplomatic challenges ahead for any real progress among nations to cooperate to combat climate change.

Recognising that industrialised countries are responsible for most greenhouse gas emissions, the protocol laid out specific reduction targets for these countries to meet. It was hoped to cut emissions to pre-1990 levels by 2012.

Thailand is the world's 31st worst emitter of greenhouse gases. The top five are the United States, China, Indonesia, Brazil and Russia.

Apart from the US and Russia, none of these countries are subject to carbon dioxide-reduction targets in the protocol. The US was asked to make cuts of 8 per cent. It drew international criticism by refusing to ratify the protocol and ignoring the commitment.

The next two weeks will see new rules laid down. In Bali, countries will start official negotiations on a post-Kyoto agreement. It will take over from Kyoto when it expires in 2012. At issue is the question of China, Brazil and India. Will they be forced to meet emission-reduction targets?

"Climate change is as much a scientific challenge as a political game," said Dr Sitanon Jesdapipat, who serves on Thailand's National Climate Change Committee. "Thailand is not a big polluter, but its carbon dioxide emissions are not small either.

"So, if Thailand does not know what it wants and what its strategies will be like, we may have to play by the rules written for us by other people.

"We can continue addressing the challenge in an ad-hoc manner that is not strategic enough to reap the full benefits. We haven't seen any well-formulated arguments. Let's get real and start doing something systematically and strategically."

Buntoon of Multilateral Environmental Agreements Watch Project said success in Bali may hinge on a change in stance by the US and other major emitters.

But, with Australia's new prime minister Kevin Rudd pledging to ratify the protocol, and the prospect of a new US leader next year, there is optimism global efforts to address climate change will become more effective.

"If we're not on the eve of a breakthrough in Bali, we can spend the next six years waiting for the next report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Public interest will slip away and we will be in deep trouble," said Yvo de Boer, the executive secretary for the United Nation's Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Nantiya Tangwisutijit

The Nation