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Published on November 30, 2007

Should we vote for Thaksin Shinawatra or not? The People Power Party represents Thaksin's remnants and it remains highly popular in the North and the Northeast. The Democrat Party is the antithesis of the People Power Party, which has risen from the ashes of the Thai Rak Thai Party. There have been polls showing that PPP is enjoying a solid lead over the Democrats.

But can we believe these polls? I guess not. There are secret military polls, then there are police polls. You might wonder whether the military and the police are actually in the business of conducting polls. The poll outcomes, leaked for political motives, are sensational, creating all kinds of speculation and making media headlines.

We may quickly summarise the purpose of the polls this way:

First, they show that the PPP is a force that is invisible. Second, they show that the State will have to do more if it is to prevent the old power clique - in the form of PPP - from returning to power.

It is going to be the State vs Money in the December 23 election. The State has a vested interest in preventing Thaksin's cronies from returning to power. After all, the military coup was staged last year with the single purpose of ousting Thaksin from power. The military will not cling to power but has promised - and is now fulfilling the pledge - to push the country back to democracy. And the top brass has enjoyed a big reward, as witnessed by a significant rise in the fiscal budget allocated to military spending. Thailand's neighbours should not feel nervous about Thailand's move to increase its military budget. There was a recent news report showing the military will use its hardware for peaceful missions rather than war. A junior military officer flew his helicopter to pick mushrooms for his mother. Tanks will either sit and rust, or be diverted for road construction tasks. 

Still, at this point, the military can't afford to allow the PPP to gain power. Such a victory for the old enemy would make a mockery of the coup. So the generals will be sending their people to villages in the PPP power-bases to try to influence the outcome of the election.

They should already have set a goal in their minds about the targets for the election - to make sure PPP is confined to the opposition bloc. This honourable mission will also ensure that the Democrats win a high enough percentage of the vote to form a coalition government with other parties and leave the PPP out in the cold. The Puea Pandin Party is likely to benefit most from this State-backed mission to keep seats from the PPP in the Northeast.

But the State-backed effort to uproot the PPP will face strong resistance in the form of big spending by the famous man in exile in London. Every politician would love to get a piece of the London pie. Some might even get help from State election funds at the same time as they are stuffing money from the "Londoner" into their back pockets. In Thai politics, you never know the true story unless you follow the money trail.

Given this State backing, the Democrats should be able to form the next government. But the honeymoon period will be short-lived. Party politics will be intense. There is the prospect that PPP supporters may rock the boat by resorting to street demonstrations against any new coalition formed by the Democrats.

In an effort to please both voters and the business community, and revive confidence and investment, the new government will try to pump massive amounts of money into infrastructure projects. We will have to wait and see if it continues with populist spending such as crop guarantee programmes, outright cash handouts, or off-balance-sheet spending through state banks - which would certainly harm Thailand's stability in the long term.

The country is going through a difficult transition back to Thai-style democracy. Consumers and investors will show improved sentiment. The new government will lead the investment revival through public outlays. But it might not live long enough to complete its four-year term. The long-term issues such as energy conservation, competitiveness, economic populism, or flooding as a result of global warming, will not be fully addressed.

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation