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Published on November 29, 2007

Speaking publicly, they wholeheartedly support the election and would like all the political uncertainties to end as soon as possible. It is the only way out for Thailand now after two years of squabbling.

But speaking privately, they do not expect very much from the outcome.

"How can we expect much from the election?" one

local businessman asked. "The new government is

going to stay around for six months because it will be a coalition government. Nobody will be able to exercise strong leadership. No single party will have a majority. And then we are going to have a snap election again. What the heck!"

He has been in talks with his business friends, who

also do not place much

faith in the election. As the election will be held at the height of the festive season, with Christmas and New Year's festivals waiting to be celebrated in full gear, business people will find an excuse not to go to the polls to vote. Instead, they will take holidays abroad to cool their nerves.

If you talk to big-time businessmen, you will sense that most long for the good old days when Thaksin came to power.

The reason?

Never before did Thailand have a strong government that stayed on through its whole term. Businessmen and investors prefer political stability, which translates into policy implementation. Without stability, economic programmes just lie dead in the files.

They are ready to turn a blind eye towards shady governance or corruption if the government can move the country forwards.

They can only grumble that Thaksin has blown his chance to set Thailand on a stable growth path. The military coup has proven a big drag on Thailand, for it aimed to remove only one man from power at the expense of the whole political system. Everything has been one big mess.

Although we're back to democracy again, there is

no guarantee that the

election will produce stability. The 111 former executives of the defunct Thai Rak Thai would like to return to

power.

So one key agenda will be to introduce legislation to grant them amnesty. Then we will have another election, with the big-time politicians returning to the political theatre.

The only hope of the new government is to spend as much money as possible to stimulate investment and domestic consumption. As exports will slow down, the key engine of growth will be investment, led by public spending.

If the new government fails to spend money already at its disposal, it will get a big thumbs-down from not only businessmen and investors but also the public.

busdsk@nationgroup.com