• 
• 

Published on November 27, 2007

 And whether we like it or not, they have become an integral part of the political system. The ongoing manoeuvring by various parties in the run-up to the December 23 general election stands testimony to that.

Just months ago, former PM Thaksin Shinawatra was being treated like a pariah that no party hoping to make a good impression on the public wanted to be seen as being associated with.  It didn't matter that most of those who wouldn't touch Thaksin with a six-foot pole had in fact worked hand in glove with the former leader. But for reasons of political expediency, they had no qualms about dumping him and the remnants of the defunct Thai Rak Thai Party still loyal to him.

The old adage  "there are no permanent friends or foes in politics" always holds true. They rallied around Thaksin because with his wealth and clout he was the undisputed leader. And they abandoned him at a time when loyalty was most needed simply because they saw him as a political liability.

Even such a shrewd veteran like Banharn Silapa-archa, leader of Chat Thai, wasted no time in jumping on the anti-Thaksin bandwagon. Though he never said it outright, the impression he gave was that Chat Thai would never coalesce with the People Power Party, the reincarnation of Thai Rak Thai. While that didn't come as a surprise to political analysts, it didn't come across as a political commitment either. After all, when it comes to political flip-flopping, someone has yet to outsmart Banharn.

But that was then - and then was only a few months ago. Now you can hardly hear any of the parties -with the exception of the Democrats - bad-mouth Thaksin. As the election draws near, it is obvious that these parties are doing their best to present themselves as being Thaksin-friendly - or at least not antagonistic toward the former leader.

The reason for the sudden change of mind is simple: poll after poll suggests that even after more than a year out of power, the former leader remains as popular as ever among constituents in the North and Northeast. All the charges of corruption and abuse of power against him have done little to dent his popularity.

It's no surprise then that the main theme of the campaign being waged by PPP candidates is: "Your vote for us is a vote for Thaksin. Voters in the two regions, which often decided the winners of general elections because of their overwhelming number of House seats, have been told that only a PPP victory will ensure Thaksin's return to power.

Even the three middle-sized parties that were formed by TRT breakaway groups - Puea Pandin, Ruamjai Thai Chat Pattana and Matchima - are reluctant to antagonise voters in the North and Northeast for fear of alienating them. No matter how they want to distance themselves from Thaksin, they are careful in trying to cultivate the image that they have not closed the door on their former boss. They are reaching out specifically to voters who are still loyal to Thaksin in the hope that they will get a share of their votes.

A month ago the realignment among the various parties was much clearer.  The PPP seemed rather isolated as most other parties rallied around the Democrats. They were largely responding to pressure from the Council for National Security, which was orchestrating the realignment from behind-the-scenes.

But as the influence of the military junta wanes with the retirement of its leader Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin, Thaksin's popularity among the rural constituents remains intact. His populist programmes have left a deep impression among the poor in the North and Northeast.  

Even Banharn needs to adopt a new approach in order to avoid falling out of favour with fervently pro-Thaksin voters. Like other party leaders, Banharn insists his party is not bound by any commitment to join hands with the Democrats in forming a coalition after the election. The much-publicised lunch he had with Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva less than a month ago, and which was designed to signal a pact between the two parties, was quickly dismissed by Banharn.

When it comes to casting their votes, people in the two regions have a tendency to listen to what canvassers and community leaders say. The message that these parties are spreading is that they have nothing against Thaksin and the PPP and they are open to a union with any party that can command a decisive number of seats.

Politicians want to see themselves as pragmatic - but the public has a different interpretation of their frequent twists and turns. Their cosying up to Thaksin is nothing but political expediency. In the end, however, they will all try to stick with the ultimate winner. And they will all want to make sure they back the right horse - one that will defy the odds to stay in power for as long as it can.

A post-election government led by Thaksin's nominee is most likely to lead the country into a new round of political confrontation. And shrewd politicians will certainly not want to be part of a government with a short life span.

So if you think you have been intrigued by all the twists and turns of the past few months, wait until the morning of December 24. More surprises and bigger ironies are likely to be in store.

Thepchai Yong

The Nation