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Published on November 19, 2007

Nation Group will analyse and evaluate the electoral battle weekly until polling day, based on previous analyses, databases and current political factors, and publish its conclusions every Monday.

Although People Power will win the majority of seats, it will be much less than Thai Rak Thai won in the 2005 election - 377 of a total 500 constituency and party list members.

This election there are 400 constituency seats up for grabs and 80 party-list members will be elected according to the proportion of total votes won by their parties.

People Power, People Power, widely viewed as a reinvention of Thai Rak Thai, will maintain that party's strong hold on the North, but half the seats in the Northeast will fall to new parties Puea Pandin and Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana. In the last election, Thai Rak Thai won 126 Northeast seats.

People Power will win fewer seats in Bangkok than Thai Rak Thai did in the last election - 14 compared to 32.

The Democrats are expected to take 128 seats. The party will claim 51 seats in the South from a total of 56. It will take another eight of the 10 available proportionally elected House spots.

Overall, the Democrats will do better than in 2005, when they won 96 out of the 500 seats.

Democrat and People Power candidates are involved in neck-and-neck races in many constituencies in the North and Bangkok.

The Democrats will take 18 seats in the capital, up from four in 2005.

Chart Thai looks set to win 63 seats, up from 25 last time.

Puea Pandin is on target to win 45 seats, while Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana should bag 23. The Matchima Thipataya looks on course for 22 seats.

Pracharaj Party should be a surprise with nine seats.

The Nation