• 
• 

Published on November 8, 2007

Political parties have launched their campaigns. Their leaders have bluffed their rivals with rosy forecasts of the number of MP seats they believe they will win.

When it comes to the moment of truth, only the seats each party gains will decide who will head the next government.

At this juncture, only three party leaders have a crack at the premiership - Samak Sundaravej of the People Power Party (PPP), the Democrats' Abhisit Vejjajiva and Chart Thai's Banharn Silapa-archa.

Samak is the top horse. He served stints as deputy prime minister in several governments over the last three decades. But the upcoming election offers him a golden chance at the pinnacle post because he is fronting the PPP under deposed premier Thaksin Shinawatra's shadow.

The PPP is far ahead of its rivals, the Democrats and Chart Thai, in recent popularity surveys. With the August 19 referendum result showing strong support for Thaksin in northern and northeastern provinces, Samak says he's ready to be the next premier if his party wins.

He will be a shoe-in if the PPP sweeps more than 240 of the 480 MP seats up for grabs.

The party will gain full legitimacy to form a government, as the election result could be nothing but a reflection of the faith that the majority of voters still have in Thaksin - even though more than a year has passed since he was ousted by the September 19 coup of last year.

The voices of Thaksin's opponents claiming Samak is the ex-PM's nominee will become faint and unsupported.

However, if PPP wins the national poll with fewer than 240 seats but leaves its rivals in the dust, the party will form a coalition government.

In this case, PPP would be reluctant to nominate Samak for prime minister because it didn't get a "clear-cut" mandate. Moreover, Samak will be vulnerable to attacks and allegations by Thaksin's opponents that he will lead the new government only to protect Thaksin and "smooth" the way for his return from England.

Banharn will in those circumstances be the favourite candidate, although his Chart Thai will not win the majority of seats in the House.

The PPP will then gladly lead the coalition, although its party leader will not assume the premiership. The party will ask medium-sized parties - including Chart Thai, Puea Pandin, Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and Matchima Thipataya - to enter into a government coalition.

Banharn yesterday vowed to remain an ally of the Democrats and not team up with the PPP. He said society would never forgive him if he changed his allegiance.

He is, however, seen as a man "waiting to join a government". As Chart Thai is believed to be destined for third place after the PPP and the Democrats, Banharn allegedly will not hesitate if the door to join the PPP coalition is open.

If Samak doesn't become prime minister, Thaksin would surely love to see his old ally Banharn rather than fierce foe Abhisit assume power.

If Banharn joins forces with the PPP, he will have a chance to become premier. If he sticks with the Democrats, the opportunity will be lost because the Democrat Party will never allow anyone to head the government besides its leader Abhisit.

When veteran politician Sanan Kachornprasart left the Mahachon Party for Chart Thai recently, it was speculated that Banharn had dreamed of emerging as the new premier.

He reportedly wants Sanan to be the party's liaison - a role the former Mahachon leader is good at - with the PPP and other parties, except the Democrats, in order to pave way the way for him to assume the premiership if the opportunity comes his way.

Banharn's chances could dim if the Puea Pandin Party joins the PPP coalition with more MP seats than Chart Thai. Puea Pandin leader Suwit Khunkitti could become a dark horse as Samak's substitute, because as a former minister under Thaksin he still has good ties with his ex-boss.

On the Democrats' side, Abhisit won't find a red carpet laid out for him to the prime minister's office under the current circumstances.

Abhisit will enjoy overwhelming odds to lead the next government if his party manages to win the most seats, even if it fails to land an absolute majority. He would form a coalition government with allies including Chart Thai, Puea Pandin, Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and Matchima Thipataya.

The PPP would then become the only opposition party, but holding enough seats to test the Democrat-led government.

However, recent surveys show that this scenario is doubtful because the Democrats look likely to be runners-up. The party's recent moves show that Abhisit realises his party is trailing its staunch opponent, the PPP.

Abhisit will have a chance to challenge the PPP if the seat gap between the two parties is small.

In that scenario, the Democrats will vie with the PPP for the medium-sized parties. If those parties decide to join the Democrats, Abhisit will get the momentum to head the government.

This strategy is backed by the Democrats' recent moves. The party has expressed "best wishes" for its allies to ensure that none of them swing to the PPP camp or leave the alliance.

Key party leaders, for instance, have defended controversial actions or policies taken by the coup leaders, some of whom are targeting to ruin the PPP and Thaksin.

Abhisit has also assured his allies Banharn and Snoh Thienthong, the Pracharaj Party leader, that the Democrat Party will not field candidates in their strongholds, including Suphan Buri and Sa Kaew.

Political Desk

 The Nation