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Published on November 7, 2007

Under the new voting rules, the outcome of the December 23 general election will likely see a fairly even distribution of votes among the parties and candidates. No landslide victory is anticipated.

The two main rivals, the Democrat Party and the People Power Party (PPP), are projected to win more than 100 House seats each. But the big question is which of the two will claim victory.

The Pua Paendin Party and the Chat Thai Party are likely to finish third and fourth, and both are certain to join the next coalition government. Pua Paendin might win 50 to 70 seats, while Chat Thai is projected to grab about 40 seats.

The next three largest parties - Matchimathiptaya, Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana, and Pracharaj - will fight fiercely for a coalition slot because none of them would want to end up in the opposition.

Matchima and Ruam Jai Thai will grab 20 to 30 seats each, and Pracharaj would expect less than 10 seats.

Two marginalised parties, Prachakorn Thai Party and Prachamati, may not win any seats at all. They might have an outside chance of one or two seats, but their true motive for joining the race is to act as decoys to sway votes for their patrons. Prachakorn Thai is linked to PPP, while Prachamati is close to Matchima.

From the precedent set in the 1980s, the direct balloting in multi-seat constituencies will see subdued competition among the parties and candidates. This is not a make-or-break race like the system of winner-takes-all seen in the one-seat constituencies.

Parties and candidates have a lot of room to strike a deal. The outcome in a given constituency might see winners from different parties, and proportionate votes are likely to be spread over the major parties.

Past elections in multi-seat constituencies produced no runaway winners.

The race is expected to centre around the strengths of individual candidates. No charismatic candidates are competing for the position of prime minister, and the rival parties have no clear-cut policy differences.

In the absence of policy issues and leadership rivalry, the outcome is unlikely to swing one way or another. Even though the fate of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is still the burning issue for voters and politicians, it remains a backdrop for the polls rather than a decisive influence.

At this juncture, the Democrats appear to have the upper hand to lead the next coalition. PPP will have to fight an uphill battle to emerge the winner.

The Democrat-Chat Thai alliance and the Thai Rak Thai splinter groups of Pua Paendin, Ruamjai Thai and Matchima form the pincers to hold PPP in check.

PPP should consider itself fortunate if it wins half of the 135 House seats via direct voting in the Northeast, seen as its stronghold.

Barring the unexpected, Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva is likely to outpace PPP leader Samak Sundaravej to the finish line.

However, there is a possibility of Pua Paendin and Chat Thai emerging as a possible dark horse for the premiership.

Neither party has a chance to secure top votes. But either one could compete for the position of prime minister, hence they would try to have the first shot at forming the coalition if the winning party, be it the Democrats or PPP, fail to achieve a clear lead.

Pua Paendin leader Suwit Khunkitti and his Chat Thai counterpart Banharn Silapa-archa are able and willing to hijack the victory under the right circumstances.

The ideal number of seats for the winning party should be around 120 to 150 to ensure a strong bargaining position. The coalition should have about 280 to 300 of the 480 House seats.

The narrower the margin of victory, the greater the chance that either Suwit or Banharn could meddle in the coalition formation.

Avudh Panananda

 The Nation