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Published on November 4, 2007

Ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra should take note that some party bosses - such as Prachai Leophairatana of the Matchimathipataya Party, which claims it will win as many 120 House seats - have announced that their own brands of populism could go even further than he did when he was premier.

For example, Prachai, the former TPI boss, is wooing voters with a total of 42 state welfare and populist policies. Explaining his party's platform Prachai said these policies would include "free healthcare for everyone, including for some kidney ailments that are currently not covered by the state welfare system, and free education, plus free food and books for kids.

"In short, our welfare package will be more comprehensive than that of the previous Thai Rak Thai-led government. Then, we'll overhaul the budget system to separate the investment budget from the fixed expenditure budget... so that we can drive economic growth by launching more mega-infrastructure projects such as a total of 10 mass transit lines in Bangkok and the suburbs, the Kra Isthmus canal scheme, and double railway tracks nationwide."

Prachai pledged to nearly double GDP from the current Bt7.7 trillion to around Bt12 trillion in four years, bringing per capita income from Bt110,000 to around Bt180,000.

"To combat corruption, I think we need to find the money to increase the basic salaries of civil servants because the root problem is that their salaries are too low and insufficient for a decent life," Prachai said.

As for the Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana Party, for which former deputy premier Somkid Jatusripitak is an adviser, its brand is called "Populism Plus", signifying additional incentives for supporters. For instance, the controversial village fund scheme, which made the disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party very popular during its first few years, would be expanded, with each of the 70,000 villages nationwide given Bt2 million in revolving funds, up from the current Bt1 million.

The party, which claims it will win 30 to 80 House seats, pledges to give a monthly salary of Bt2,000 to every senior citizen currently not covered by the social security system, restructure the debts of about 130,000 state school teachers and grant tax breaks worth an annual Bt35 billion for wage earners over a three-year period.

The Democrat and People Power parties, aiming at 180 and 250 House seats respectively, are also campaigning on similar populist and state welfare policies in areas such as healthcare, education and other social issues, as well as pledges to invest in mega-infrastructure schemes.

All in all, there is no ideological difference among the contesting parties, including Chat Thai, Pua Paendin and Pracharaj, since they all claim to represent the interests of ordinary people.

In effect, the majority of rural and poor voters will still be influenced heavily by local canvassers and their brand of populism. In this context, the People Power Party (formerly Thai Rak Thai) should still have an edge over rival parties, even though its margin will not be as large as before.

Still, the People Power Party claims it could garner as many as 100 House seats in the North and Northeast, its strongholds, plus another 40 in the central plain and 15 in Bangkok, as well as around 40 party-list MPs.

As for the Democrat Party, its strongholds are in the South and Bangkok, with lesser support in other parts of the country. Its chances of forming the next government will be heavily influenced by so-called "strategic" voters, who will make their ballot choice at the last minute.

No polls are able to predict how will they vote at this stage, as they have not yet made up their minds. These strategic voters are believed to account for up to 35 per cent of all voters. They include the educated urbanites of Bangkok and all other provincial cities and towns, who will keep themselves well informed until they enter the polling booths and make their choices on December 23.

Hopefully, they will all have a more "forward looking" perspective than other categories of voters and will be able to decisively influence a turning point for the better in Thai politics since the country has already wasted over two years in trying to resolve its political impasse.

Nophakhun Limsamarnphun

 nop1122@yahoo.com