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Published on October 30, 2007

Two party leaders, Sanan Kachornprasart of Mahachon and Snoh Thienthong of Pracharaj, are like cuckoos executing a parasitic strategy to field candidates for other parties to hatch and rear.

Sanan has already picked the Chat Thai Party to raise his 15 candidates as its own, while Snoh is choosing between the Democrat Party and the Pua Paendin Party as the nest for his clique of about five to six candidates.

Mahachon and Pracharaj will lie dormant and rely on other parties to campaign on their behalf. The future of the two parties will depend on the outcome of the December 23 election. The two may transform into factions of larger parties or enjoy a revival based on votes swayed by their allies.

Regardless of the possible scenarios, Sanan and Snoh are likely to take a back seat and use their campaigning experience to nurture the careers of their political scions and relatives. The two leaders realise that they have seen their heyday.

Although the two have been guaranteed a coalition slot each, should the Democrat Party secure victory to form the next government, they appear unable to attract aspiring candidates to their respective banners. Their popularity beyond their respective strongholds remains flat. The drive for campaign contributions has been a big disappointment.

Sanan has admitted that his party has no chance of victory through its own campaigning. Snoh has lamented that he can no longer keep up with political changes.

In negotiating their exit, the two leaders have managed to convince other parties to adopt their candidates in exchange for allegiance. This is seen as a win-win deal - Sanan and Snoh can wield influence without shouldering the financial burdens, and their allies can expect improved odds for election victory.

The catch is whether the pre-ballot alliance will remain strong after the votes are cast. Sanan and Snoh can count on their old banners as being bargaining chips for their candidates in the formation of a coalition. At the same time, the nurturing parties can renounce any deals on the grounds of political cuckold.

In spite of the highly-publicised alliance between Sanan and Chat Thai Party leader Banharn Silapa-archa, political observers still view this as a marriage of convenience rather than a long-lasting arrangement.

Banharn is full of praise for Sanan but stops short of spelling out the details for power sharing. In turn Sanan is upbeat about teaming up with Chat Thai but remains vague about working for the greater good of his new party.

At this juncture, Banharn has attracted huge publicity to boost his party's standing as a strong contender for the coalition leadership. He is also clear that he wants Snoh to follow Sanan's lead and join his party instead of either the Democrats or Pua Paendin.

Should Chat Thai successfully woo Sanan and Snoh, Banharn may emerge as a dark horse to outpace Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva in the race for the premiership.

Snoh is expected to make up his mind within a week.

As things stand, almost a dozen parties are running, but much of the campaigning centres around a five-horse race between the People's Power Party, the Democrat-Chat Thai bloc, the Pua Paendin Party, the Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana Party and the Matchima Thippatai party.

At one end of the spectrum, People's Power is trying to win with the help of ousted government leaders, including former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

At the opposite end, the Democrat and Chat Thai alliance is fighting to bring about a new post-Thaksin leadership. The two allies are also engaged in subtle infighting for the lead role.

The three other parties, formerly splinter groups of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party, remain wildcards that could swing either to a coalition or the opposition.

For the past two years, society has been deeply divided by the leadership issue. Politicians and voters have been drawn into the mire of individual conflict and not policy differences. It is no surprise, then, that the campaigning is being dominated by a turf war among individual candidates to protect traditional strongholds.

As politicians vie to realign power, the December 23 election is expected to be about the personalities of individual candidates rather than campaign policies.

Avudh Panananda

 The Nation