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Published on October 30, 2007

Government security forces, including the armed forces and the Royal Thai Police, have apparently made significant progress in combating Islamic militants/Malay separatists over the past few months, although their attempt to re-establish the rule of law and improve public safety remains elusive.

According to assistant professor Dr Srisompob Jitpiromsri of Prince of Songkhla University Pattani's Deep South Watch, the number of violent incidents linked to insurgent activities, including gun murders and bombings, as well as overall casualties, has gone down since July.

Deep South Watch, which has been monitoring violence in the southern provinces of Yala, Pattani, Narathiwat and Songkhla since it began in January 2004, said in its latest report released yesterday that only 114 violent incidents took place in the whole of September, compared to 147 in July. The number of people killed in September was 125, compared to 209 in August.

The number of bombings fell from 37 in August to 26 in September, while cases of gun murders dropped from 95 to 74 during the same period. Deep South Watch attributed what appears to be a marked improvement in the situation in the strife-torn region to the month-long observance of Ramadan, which ended this month, as well as a change in the tactics used by government security forces.

As in previous years, guerrilla activities dropped slightly during the holy month of Ramadan when devout Muslims fast from dawn to dusk. But this year, an even steeper drop in the number of incidents was recorded as security forces conducted more aggressive searches to arrest suspected insurgents in areas infiltrated by armed separatists.

The use of overwhelming force to surround whole villages or communities to flush out suspected insurgents has proved successful since the new tactics were introduced earlier this year.

Virtually no civilian casualties have been reported since the beginning of this year because security forces have received better training in how to conduct their raids in populated areas and they have been instructed to respect the local people's rights.

However, such a positive turn of events could be short-lived as insurgents living in the midst of civilians may have chosen to lay low for a while, waiting to strike again when the opportunity presents itself or when security forces let their guard down.

It is quite obvious that the Islamic militants/Malay separatists have chosen to engage in small-scale guerrilla warfare in their fight against the Thai state because it is convenient for them and suits their long-term objectives. A full-fledged insurgency against government security forces, with their superiority in numbers and advanced weaponry, would be suicide.

The Thai government, security forces and the Thai public must realise that militants intend to drive a wedge between mainstream Thai society, which is predominantly Buddhist, and Thai Muslims of Malay descent in the deep South by instigating a sense of mutual distrust and racial hatred. Thailand, as a society renowned for its remarkable tolerance, must not fall into the trap laid by the insurgents. The armed forces and the police are doing the right thing by laying down a clear-cut strategy to combat insurgents. At the same time, the government must try to win the hearts and minds of local people in the southernmost region through well thought-out political initiatives, and economic and social development programmes aimed at improving living conditions and integrating Malay Thais into society without compromising their cultural identity.

At the same time, security forces must explore new tactics based on improved intelligence to try to quell the insurgency. Surely, the government, which successfully put down armed separatist movements in the deep South in the 1980s, is capable of ending the insurgency in the region over time. To do that, the government and security forces must be guided by sound policy-making backed by good strategic thinking and flexible tactics to counter the ever-evolving ploys of insurgents who combine hit-and-run guerrilla tactics with the use of terrorism to advance their cause. No one says it will be easy to defeat the insurgents. But defeating hate-filled insurgents and their twisted interpretation of Islam and winning peace depends on Thailand, as a society, doing everything right in a sustainable manner.

The Nation