• 
• 

Published on October 26, 2007

With incumbent MPs putting themselves up for sale at the highest price - around Bt30-Bt40 million per head - it is difficult to predict the outcome of the election. The power vacuum created by the coup to remove Thaksin Shinawatra and his Thai Rak Thai Party is being felt strongly. It will take some time before equilibrium returns to Thailand because there is no paramount leader or party to succeed him during this muddle-through period.

At this juncture, as we have already predicted, Abhisit Vejjajiva of the Democrat Party stands the highest chance of forming a coalition government. This probability is as high as 80 per cent. The signal was clear in late May when the Constitution Tribunal ruled to dissolve Thai Rak Thai and banned 111 of its executive members from politics for five years. The Democrat Party was spared the same fate.

By implication, the Democrats have  carte blanche to form the next government. If they fail to make it this time, they can only have themselves to blame. The Democrats might win 120 seats by a conservative estimate, but they could muster more MPs under their wing.

International investors and the business community appear to favour Abhisit as PM because he is believed to have the necessary charisma and a good understanding of how to bring Thailand back into the world's favour after two years of political turmoil.

Even members of the People Power Party of Samak Sundaravej - who is trying to revive remnants of the Thaksin regime - have admitted they do not stand a chance of forming the next government. Phatra Securities has estimated PPP might win the largest number of seats - around 180 MPs - out of the total of 480 up for grabs.

But it is doubtful PPP will get this number of seats, given the defections that are going on and the changing political landscape, which is not in its favour. It would be an irony if the People Power Party - seen as a proxy for Thaksin - were to gain power because the coup was staged to eliminate Thaksin's power base in the first place. If the worst comes to worst, political "accidents" will arise to prevent it from holding the executive power.

The key factor is the performance of other parties, so that a coalition government might be formed with Abhisit, Samak and Banharn Silapa-archa of the Chat Thai Party all vying for the premiership. Let's evaluate the prospects of the other parties, which could play a crucial role in formation of a coalition.

Pua Paendin, or the Motherland Party, has turned its back on Thaksin. This party is led by Suwit Khunkitti, and has big-time members like Preechai Laohapongchana, Pinij Charusombat, Vatana Asavahame, Suchart Tancharoen, Surakiart Sathirathai, Suranand Vejjajiva and Gen Panlop Pinmanee. Motherland is becoming significant now in spite of an initial setback.

Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana has recently gained Gen Chettha Thanajaro as its head. But the key personalities in this merged party are Suwat Lipatapanlop, Pradit Pattaraprasit, Pichate Satirachaval and Somkid Jatusripitak.

Prachai Leopairatana, the former chief executive of Thai Petrochemical Industry Plc, has aspirations of becoming Thailand's next prime minister by assuming control of the Matchima Thippatai party. If he can't make it as prime minister, he is happy enough to serve as finance minister, he declared. Somsak Thepsuthin formed this party to retain political constituencies in the North and Northeast. But Somsak does not have the money, or is reluctant to pay out. That's why Prachai is calling all the shots, because he has deep pockets. Matchima Thippatai is no longer as sexy as before, because Prachai asked its candidates to sign a document to prevent last-minute defections.

Members of the now defunct People's Alliance for Democracy, which was a catalyst in ousting Thaksin from power, are supporting Matchima Thippatai.

Snoh Thienthong's Pracharaj Party is heart-broken. Attempts earlier to merge with Motherland and form an alliance with Prachai have failed. It is now left with a handful of MPs in the Northeast.

The key party to watch is Banharn Silapa-archa's Chat Thai, a former ally of the Democrats. If it musters 60 seats - and the Democrats and the People Power both fail to win a convincing majority - this will increase the chance of Banharn becoming prime minister. This possibility cannot be ruled out, since Banharn is known to be a shrewd veteran, with lots of tricks and ammunition.

The Democrats now have no choice but to win big in order to ensure a core role in the next government. That would make it easier when picking coalition partners and horse-trading over portfolios. By that time the new coalition government's economic policies will be clearer - no doubt revolving around mega projects, populist spending, free education and healthcare. Right now party policies do not mean anything because it's the personalities that count more.

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation