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Published on October 25, 2007

More than 200 participants at a Disease Control Department pandemic preparedness seminar heard yesterday that absenteeism in a pandemic could be as high as 40 per cent, bringing industry and commerce to a standstill.

Influenza Foundation of Thailand senior adviser Dr Praphasri Jungsuksuntigul said without a contingency plan, business would suffer badly.

The seminar heard World Health Organisation data for Thailand that suggested as many as 65,000 people could die in a pandemic.

It estimated the cost to the country could be as high as Bt47 billion if a pandemic hit next year.

Thailand's economy could lose between Bt4.7 billion and Bt46 billion if the pandemic hit next year and between Bt4.8 billion and Bt47.2 billion if it comes in 2010.

That is a per-capita loss of between Bt992 and Bt2,417. The estimates are based on medical care, drugs and absence from work.

The WHO estimates between 150,000 and 600,000 could be infected.

Praphasri said preparedness plans were essential. Her foundation estimated between 25 and 30 per cent of the working population could be infected in a pandemic.

Absenteeism will be between 10 per cent and 40 per cent, costing companies a lot of money.

Plans should include staff working from home in the event of infection. This will reduce the chances of spreading flu at workplaces.

Using the Internet and telecommuting will allow companies to get some work done.

"Influenza symptoms dissipate within 30 days after initial infection, so companies should allow employees to work at home until they feel better. This could prevent the spreading of influenza at workplaces," she said.

Companies needed to look at health insurance for employees.

She added that pregnant women were a significant risk group.

Pongphon Sarnsamak

 The Nation