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Published on October 23, 2007

 They talk about political instability. They express fears that since the next government will be a coalition, politicians will be preoccupied with in-fighting. Their bet is that the post-election government will not even last a year.

So what's new or exciting about that? Haven't we Thais already become accustomed to all of these political worst-case scenarios? The pundits must be either too paranoid or they've lost their grasp of Thai political reality.

Instead of making a hue and cry, they should first sit back and try to look at things from a historical perspective. Had they looked more closely at the political developments and all those political personalities who have been making headlines, they would have known that there is nothing alarming at all about Thailand's political future.

Take the latest defection of a group of members of the Matchima Thippatai Party as an example. Only the ignorant would be excited by it, while nervous pundits take it as a confirmation of their worst fears. But those who know Thai politics well enough would just laugh it off as nothing more than a healthy sign that the Thai political merry-go-round continues to go round.

Sophon Phetsawang, a former deputy House speaker, claimed he had led the breakaway because he could not accept Matchima Thippatai leader Prachai Leophairatana's management style. But what actually prompted the defection was a serious disagreement over their financial arrangement. Of course, this shouldn't come as a surprise because in Thai politics there is always a price for loyalty.

Snoh Thienthong, leader of the beleaguered Pracharaj Party, thought he was delivering a piece of earth-shaking news when he revealed that potential election candidates were being lured by a Bt40-million cash reward to switch parties. While the figure certainly raised many eyebrows, what Sanoh was telling us merely restated a fact of life concerning Thai politicians before any election. Since when did politicians switch their allegiances for free?

Then we have these three newly formed political parties - Pracharaj, Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana and Matchima Thippatai - toying with the idea of a merger only to find out that it was not legally practical. Lest we forgot, it was only yesterday that their leaders were going at each other's throats.

Well, the exercise was just another page from the old Thai political book. Political parties come and go, but the old guard always stays around to find a way for a comeback. Political platforms are the last thing they would think about when it comes to political realignments or forming new parties.

One of the surest signs that Thai politics is moving along a "safe path" is the re-emergence of such political diehards as Samak Sundaravej, Chalerm Yoobamrung and General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh. Added to the list of active veterans who are most likely to call the shots after the election like Banharn Silapa-archa, Korn Dabbaransi and Suwit Khunkitti, they provide an assurance that there will be no post-election surprises. And don't forget all those spouses and children of banned veteran politicians, who will serve as their stand-ins at election time.

The latest Abac poll has also put to rest any concerns that the December election might be any different from the previous ones. Its findings - that two-thirds of voters polled are willing to trade their voters for cash or gifts - may be disturbing but is nothing short of a confirmation that money will again decide the result of the election.

Critics can be pessimistic about Thailand's political future. But shouldn't they take comfort from all the signs that Thai politics is returning to "normal" again? After all, since when did we not have vote-buying, political horse-trading and betrayal? They have all been part and parcel of Thai politics.

So at end the day, there shouldn't be anything alarming about the post-election scenario. There shouldn't even be anything unusual about it because this is essentially the "Thai politics" that we all should have become accustomed to by now.

 Thepchai Yong

The Nation