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Published on October 18, 2007

 Caught between the need to modernise its arsenal and battling the bloody insurgency in the Malay-speaking South, the Thai military has been wrestling with a dilemma as to what constitutes a priority for national defence.

Military spending in the region has risen in recent years and Thai generals do not want to miss out on the shopping spree to achieve what security experts call "military balance".

But like other government agencies, one can be sure there is bound to be controversy whenever the military is involved in a major purchase of military equipment.

The recent decision to procure 12 Swedish-made Gripen-JAS 39C/D multi-role jet fighters, with a price tag of Bt34.4 billion, to replace the Vietnam-era US F-5 warplanes, is no exception.

For the past decade or so, in the aftermath of the 1997 financial crisis, it has been hard for elected politicians to defend major military projects unless the deal could be spun in such a way that the public would go along with it. Barter trade and social-educational projects, such as the BAE's "Smart Schools", have become a component in today's procurement plans.

During the Thaksin administration, the country linked military modernisation with mega-project investments.

The government had been on the verge of finalising a deal to barter Thai chickens for Russian SU-30 jet fighters.

Some of the top brass openly spoke out against the Russian fighters, while critics said the armed forces were being forced to accept a system that was not compatible with the existing one. And then came the September 2006 coup and the deal went out of the window - along with the chickens.

Theoretically, the most important principle behind any procurement is the country's military capability, followed by national security, economic considerations and lastly, political incentives, says Chulalongkorn University's Associate Professor Panitan Wattanayagorn.

Thaksin, in line with his populous agenda, wanted to do the opposite.

Taking these considerations on a point-by-point basis, the purchase of the Gripen-JAS 39C/D multi-role fighters may come out ahead of the Russian SU-30. But it doesn't mean the purchase is not without problems.

Nine years ago, the Royal Thai Airforce (RTA) said one of its aims was to reduce diversification of its inventory as part of a strategy to enhance efficiency. The RTA also said they were aiming to cut back the number of squadrons from 36 to 24.

According to Panitan, compatibility between the Gripen and the two existing squadrons of F16 fighters may not be a major problem when taking into account standardisation, avionics and code sharing. Nevertheless, procuring Swedish jet fighters is a "major departure" from the standard practice of reducing the diversification of military equipment, said Panitan.

Viewed from a wider perspective, the procurement of the Gripen jet fighters is part of the country's effort to strengthen the 'main platform' of the armed forces (like the procurement of main battle tanks, advanced destroyers and frigates) in response to any perceived conventional threat.

However, Panitan said the restive South, being the most visible and immediate threat to the country, should be given a bigger consideration in the armed forces' procurement policy.

Panitan said some of the areas that need improvement in the South include command-control-communication-intelligence, patrols - especially night patrols - better surveillance, communication gear and bomb detecting equipment.

The jet deals may enhance overall military capability in the conventional sense of the word, but they won't count for much against the new generation of insurgents in the South where more than 2,500 people have been killed since January 2004.

The procurement of 96 armoured personnel carriers (APC) from the Ukraine for Bt4 billion saw the military employing the same logic in the procurement project - high in quantity and low in cost.

While it could be argued that the Ukrainian APCs are good enough to withstand roadside attacks in the deep South, it does not mean that a rocket-propelled grenade from some unfriendly force along the Thai-Burma border couldn't blow it apart.

Finding the right balance between chickens, jet fighters and the means to fight the bloody insurgency appear to be a long way off for the military.

Don Pathan

 The Nation