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Published on October 17, 2007

After suffering strong criticism for not doing enough to push Burma towards democracy and national reconciliation, Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont finally broke the ice while talking with United Nations Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari by suggesting that something like North Korea's six-party talks be held for Burma.

The suggestion, if not merely a means to show that the premier does have something to say, gave the international community good reason to look for ways to end the crisis in the junta-ruled nation.

Surayud proposed that Asean, along with regional superpowers China and India, create a core group to work on the Burma issue. He did not say anything else other than mention that similar six-party talks on the nuclear issue in North Korea were seen as successful.

"We think it's a good model that we should use to solve the problems in Myanmar [Burma]," he said.

The number of parties who will be involved remains unclear and Surayud gave no details on his proposal. Journalists counted the number of prospective parties on their own and some came up with four, while others said six.

Another idea came up - perhaps not all 10 members of the Asean would sit in the core group, but would instead create an Asean Troika to represent them.

This Asean Troika is not like the European Union's version, which comprises of past, present and future rotation chairmen. It is selected on a purpose-built basis. A diplomatic source said the troika this time would comprise Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.

Asean used a troika once to deal with the situation in Cambodia after the 1997 coup when Hun Sen deployed troops to oust co-premier Norodom Ranariddh. The troika then comprised of foreign ministers from Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia.

Surayud did not rule out the idea of putting together a new Asean Troika, saying the leaders of the 10 members might discuss the matter during Asean's annual summit in Singapore next month.

However, whether it is with or without an Asean Troika, the core group as suggested by Surayud - Asean plus China and India - is not ideal for dealing with the situation because the members are all like-minded and have no critical approach towards dealing with the Burmese junta.

The idea is almost similar to the one behind the failed "Bangkok Process", which was initiated by former foreign minister Surakiart Sathirathai in December 2003. Diplomats from 12 nations, including China, Japan, India, Indonesia and several European Union members, sat with then-Burmese foreign minister Win Aung urging the junta to release Aung San Suu Kyi and seek national reconciliation.

Surakiart wanted the Bangkok Process to yield good results, but only managed to hold a one-off meeting at the Foreign Ministry and nothing was achieved. Suu Kyi is still under house arrest and the junta is getting even fiercer.

There is nothing wrong with the idea of applying the North Korean six-party-talks formula to Burma, but the selection of the parties chosen for the talks is key. Regional superpowers India, and notably China, have always had a soft approach towards the junta. Beijing has constantly defended Burma in the international community instead of putting pressure on the junta to achieve goals. China was also the main driver in softening the UN Security Council's stance on the situation in Burma. So, it is a bit difficult to see how China can make positive changes in Burma.

The one major force in the six-party talks that pushed Pyongyang to disable its Yongbyon nuclear facility was that the United States offered to take the country off its list of terrorist supporters in exchange for doing so. Dealing with Burma will be similar to dealing with North Korea because the leaders of both countries are stubborn by nature, so Surayud's core group will need a tough hand and be armed with trade-off tactics.

It is doubtful that an association of like-minded countries will be able to achieve the ultimate goal of democracy and national reconciliation, but might just end up offering an "exit strategy" for the Burmese junta.

Supalak G Khundee

The Nation