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Published on October 16, 2007

 With about two weeks to go before the launch of campaigning, all key players are now ready to contest the December 23 general election, although two related issues will likely be an important backdrop to the outcome and the formation of the next coalition government.

One is the undying attempt by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to clear his name; the other is the unwavering determination of anti-Thaksin campaigners to finish him off at all costs.

Thaksin is fighting via his proxy, the People Power Party, for a triumphant return to his homeland from London, while his opponents are trying to shut all doors and remove him from politics permanently.

Following the disbanding of the People's Alliance for Democracy, these opponents have regrouped under the aegis of media tycoon Sondhi Limthongkul and lawmaker Prasong Soonsiri.

Thaksin and his opponents are not electoral candidates but have undeniable influence over the election.

With some nine parties contesting, it is clear that votes will be distributed among key contenders, making it likely that the coalition government and the opposition will each comprise four to five parties.

Diehard supporters of Thaksin have been very clear about their goal to make the People Power Party the coalition leader. Party leader Samak Sundaravej has openly set his sights on the post of prime minister. He is even arguing that electing him would be like getting two leaders - himself and Thaksin - at once.

The crucial question is whether Thaksin will be generous enough to part with his wealth in order to install someone else in power. To gain leverage in negotiating his way out of legal wrangles, he needs a strong opposition to apply pressure on his behalf.

Should he decide to back Samak all the way and succeed in doing so, there is no telling what the political veteran, who is not even a blood relative, will do after grabbing power.

Samak's old home, the Prachakorn Thai Party, is slated to ally itself with Thaksin's proxy party regardless of the election outcome.

If Samak ends up as opposition leader, three to four parties - splinters of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party and other small parties - will likely join him after failing to join the coalition bandwagon, including Pua Paendin (For the Motherland), Matchima Prachathipatai and Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana.

At this juncture the alliance of three former opposition parties, Democrat, Chat Thai and Mahachon, has emerged as the top contender to form the next coalition government.

Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva is close to becoming the next prime minister if he can achieve a clear lead over ally and Chat Thai Party leader Banharn Silapa-archa. Abhisit's future will also hinge on his statesmanship in distributing ministerial portfolios among his coalition allies.

The Democrats are likely to win more than 100 of the 480 House seats. It is unlikely, however, that the three-party alliance can form the government on its own. The new government should have the support of about 280 to 300 votes to ensure stability and will need to recruit one to two other parties.

If Pracharaj Party leader Snoh Thienthong fails to win enough seats to secure a coalition slot, Pua Paendin's Suwit Khunkitti, Matchima's Prachai Leophairatana and Ruam Jai Thai's Chettha Thanajaro are expected to drive a hard bargain in exchange for their support for the government.

Suwit and Chettha are wild cards who could be either in the opposition or the government, though they would obviously prefer to be in power.

Prachai is expected to campaign hard to join the government. His trump card is the tacit support of the anti-Thaksin campaigners. He professes to be the arch-enemy of Thaksin, who put up stiff opposition to his attempt to regain control over his family's industrial empire that was lost during the 1997 financial crisis.

Politics is about to enter a see-saw phase where the Democrats may have to work with former allies of the ousted government and Thaksin may be forced to mend fences with his foes to escape the political quagmire.

 Avudh Panananda

 The Nation