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Published on October 4, 2007

Thai politics is facing bitter division as it breaks into three rival factions reminiscent of the ancient Chinese classic "Romance of the Three Kingdoms".

In the current version of the classic, key members of the now defunct People's Alliance for Democracy, led by Sonthi Limthongkul, Gen Saprang Kalayanamitr and Prasong Soonsiri, have declared war against Prime Minister Surayud Chulananont and his old-ginger of a Cabinet.

Ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is having the last laugh, as he watches the two rival factions stabbing each other in the back. When the time is right, he will strike back. He now has a nominee in Samak Sundaravej of the People Power Party, which looks likely to win the largest number of seats in the general election on December 23.

Surayud was caught off guard last week while attending the UN conference in New York. The National Counter Corruption Commission (NCCC) had suddenly exposed the names of key ministers in the Cabinet who held shares of more than 5 per cent in companies. Five of these ministers have resigned over the controversy, plunging the Surayud government into a crisis.

Klanarong Chanthik of the NCCC started this dark, sinister plot, aiming to eventually slit Surayud's throat over his controversial resort ownership of Khao Yai Thieng. A no-confidence censure motion will be launched in the National Legislative Assembly with Prasong playing the eminent role of grilling the prime minister.

Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the coup leader, could also have been one of the masterminds behind this plot to overthrow Gen Surayud. He has only himself to blame for staging the coup and ending up with virtually no say in the government and holding no power whatsoever over key decisions. He has been caught in the trap of Surayud - his former boss.

He told The Nation's Thepchai Yong on national TV earlier this week that he could do so much better than the current government if he were given the opportunity to exercise power. After his retirement from the Army at the end of last month, Sonthi quickly resigned from his chairmanship of the National Security Council, the military ruling body - which lacked teeth anyway - to become deputy prime minister in charge of national security matters.

From now on, Sonthi wants to play a visible role in the Cabinet. Will he try to overshadow the prime minister for the remaining time? Most definitely, since he wants to continue his role as deputy prime minister in charge of national security or defence minister in the next elected government. He needs a place to stand and protect himself.

Gen Sonthi has been sending signals to Surayud since the beginning of this year over the snail-like pace of the government in running the country and in going after the criminal charges against Thaksin and his associates. In April, he opened his office to allow Chaiwat Sinthuwong, who led the activist group of PAD, to meet and hand over a letter calling for Surayud's resignation.

But Gen Surayud never paid Gen Sonthi enough attention. He has continued managing the country at his own pace, waiting for the general elections to finish his job and return safely to the Privy Council. Gen Surayud thinks national reconciliation will return after the elections and the cases against Thaksin would be something the justice system or the Thai court will decide upon later.

Key members of the defunct PAD have been bitter with Surayud on three points.

Firstly, they risked their lives to overthrow Thaksin but got no rewards in return. Prachai Leophairatana, who was believed to be one of the PAD financiers, can't have his Thai Petrochemical Industry Plc back. Sondhi Limthongkul of the Manager Media Group has been left in the cold. Gen Saprang has been denied the chance to succeed Gen Sonthi as army commander. Prasong, who was the chief political strategist of PAD, did not get the coveted job as president of the National Legislative Assembly or any key Cabinet position at all.

The Democrat Party may not be part of the defunct PAD, but its key leaders have a very good relationship with it, with Dr Kraisak Choonhavan playing the role of liaison.

Secondly, with Surayud playing softball with Thaksin, the now defunct PAD is afraid that it would face revenge if Thaksin were allowed to return. Thaksin believes that the coup might have removed him from power, but when the cases or charges against him reach the court, he will prevail in the end.

Thirdly, without any serious attempt to uproot the Thaksin regime, there is a strong likelihood that the People Power Party could muster the highest number of parliamentary seats in the general elections.

The defunct PAD is bitter that the coup did not produce any changes at all.

Meanwhile, Gen Surayud and the Thai elite are caught in a dilemma. If they are too harsh with Thaksin, the former prime minister could strike back with equally malicious force. Then the country will break into pieces. The cases against Thaksin as investigated by the Asset Examination Committee, the Department of Special Investigation and the National Counter Corruption Commission have been handled in a half-hearted manner.

Last week, the Criminal Court put off a hearing against Thaksin and his wife for allegedly abusing their power in the purchase of land from the Financial Institution Development Fund. The court ruled that since the defendants could not appear before the court, the case should be put on hold until the prosecutors can bring Thaksin back.

This could be seen as a small victory for Thaksin. Is it true, as charged by the old PAD, that the Surayud government has shifted into neutral gear when it comes to dealing with the criminal cases against the former prime minister? The PAD has sent out strong signals all along that if Saprang were appointed Army chief, he could finish Thaksin off in no time.

Instead Gen Anupong Paochinda has been given the Army chief's post. He attended the pre-cadet military school with Thaksin, but broke away to join Gen Surayud and Gen Sonthi and play a key role in the coup. He will stay in this powerful position for the next three years.

Anupong has been tasked with the enormous responsibility by the Thai elite of preventing the country from breaking apart due to the hardball politics being played out by the three rival factions. If need be, he could always be available to talk to the former prime minister and strike a truce.

Then came the hardball last week. The NCCC's disclosure of the share ownership of the key ministers really hit Gen Surayud hard, making him very angry.

From New York, he called Gen Sonthi to question why the NCCC had to reveal the names of ministers holding company shares of more than 5 per cent, because this shareholding did not violate the interim constitution. Surayud was the one who invited these prominent people, under special circumstances, to help form the Cabinet during the turbulent post-coup period.

Surayud realised that this incident served only as the beginning of a dark plot to overthrow him. He was so angry that he wanted to resign from this thankless job, but changed his mind, because his resignation would immediately plunge the country into a constitutional crisis because the 2007 Constitution - approved by a national referendum last week - states that only an MP can become prime minister.

Surayud cannot technically resign nor can he die before December 23.

This Thai version of the "Romance of the Three Kingdoms" will play out even more intensely as the nation heads toward the general election, which could be delayed if ...

The Political Desk

 The Nation