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Published on September 30, 2007

Apinun Tunpan, 35, a researcher at the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT)'s Interlab, believes that at least six major trends will shape the future of new media businesses in Thailand and abroad.

Apinun, who earned his PhD in computer science from the University of Maryland in 2002, says a diverse range of new media, such as the Digital Video Transport System (DVTS) and high-definition TV (HDTV), require a very high-speed broadband Internet connections, which are not yet widely available.

In his opinion, hooking up homes and buildings with fibre-optic cables is, therefore, one of the key factors that will facilitate the emergence of these new media.

"Bandwidth and Internet speed are important. For fibre optics, we're talking about a speed at gigabytes per second [gbps]. DVTS, for instance, requires a speed of 30 mbps [megabytes per second] while HDTV over the Internet could need a speed of 1.5 gbps.

"In comparison, many home users in Thailand are still online at a speed of just 56kbps [kilobytes per second] or less. So there's a lot to do about super-high-speed fixed lines as far as bandwidth and speed are concerned before it's really the era of new digital media," he says. The second major trend shaping new media is the emergence of high-speed wireless networks such as 3G and 4G cellular networks, or WiMax.

"WiMax, for instance, may allow busy businessmen caught in Bangkok's notorious traffic jams to hold video conferences to avoid missing appointments and to better manage their time. Such a technology is coming up.

"This will lead to the concept of business potentially anywhere due to increased business mobility. The technology will also allow the omnipresence of commercials.

"The Dumbonet project at AIT, with which I was involved last year, was a good example. Using the "digital ubiquitous mobile broadband", the project was aimed at facilitating collaborative multimedia communications among disaster-affected areas.

"Dumbonet would be very useful in the wake of disasters such as the tsunami that hit Thailand and other nations killing hundreds of thousands of people in late 2004," he says.

Looking beyond Dumbonet, some of its features could also appear in new media. There could be ads that recognise the human face, mood or body language or even a news story that would lead to the "right" preparation for a given business, according to Apinun.

"Thirdly, there's 'context-aware ubiquitous computing technology', allowing information to be processed collaboratively via many computerised devices around you, such as phones, PDAs [personal digital assistants], TVs, digital-media players, a car's control system, refrigerators, cameras, smart environmental control devices and others.

"In short, they'll know who you are, where you are, and the resources that you might have. Possibly, they can also predict your next actions.

"Fourth, all kinds of sensors can be the source of information for media businesses. We could have sensors that constantly measure the surrounding environment or the weather for signs of typhoons or tornadoes or for effects of the global-warming phenomenon.

"In fact, more and more sensors should be an important part of the national infrastructure to better manage traffic flows [via closed-circuit TVs] or to increase productivity in farms, as we could measure temperature or humidity and other factors that affect farm output.

"Fifth, the new generation of Web applications will shape new media businesses. In Web 1.0, people are connected and there is some interactivity. Parts of Thailand are already in this generation.

"In Web 2.0, there will be more collaborative features such as writing blogs, Wikis, tagging, multimedia on demand, or pod-casting. Many Thais also have started to use these features.

"In Web 3.0, there will be huge multimedia graphic capabilities, such as 3D Internet or "immersive experiences". Applications in this generation are still fewer than the previous two generations.

"Sixth, many types of e-communities have emerged and they will shape the future of new media businesses. Communities of bloggers or researchers or various kinds of alliances are among the examples," he says.

Nophakhun Limsamarnphun

nop1122@yahoo.com