Some hope for UN envoy, but Burmese intellectuals uncertain

Even if outside news is banned, the word has spread of the special envoys visit prompted by the crisis. Gambari travelled to Naypyidaw, to meet with government officials in Burma's new administrative capital, 350 kilometres inland from Rangoon.

But some UN vehicles were spotted in Rangoon at the Traders Hotel, within sight of the Sule Pagoda, where thousands of demonstrators had taken to the streets in midweek and at least one protestor was shot.

"There he can see how the regime deals with his," the security guard of a nearby office building said, pointing to the uniformed police that sit just 20 metres away from the hotel.

The protest signs and batons still lie scattered on the ground in testament to the week's brutal events.

Directly behind stand at least 20 soldiers with machine guns. At the street crossing in front of the hotel stand two troop transports with another 15 or 20 men.

A soldier comes around the corner, dragging an older man by the collar to a waiting truck.

Someone nearby yells "democracy" and a few bystanders begin to clap. WIthin seconds, the soldiers and 11 men they have captured speed away to interrogation.

About 100 metres closer to the pagoda, majestic old trees are used to hold barbed wire, with four strands cutting off the street from the sidewalks.

This does not look like a state indulging in freedom, reconciling the people and working for the benefit of the masses, as state newspaper The New Light would have its readers believe.

"The will of the people," the banner headline screams. "We want stability. We want peace. We are against unrest and violence."

"They forgot one thing," says an author who spent three years in prison after the junta crushed protests in 1988. "We don't want to starve."

Recent drastic price hikes for petrol and cooking oil and a high rate of inflation brought the poor people to the brink of ruin, in their desperation they took to the streets in huge protests inspired by thousands of Buddhist monks. Everyone without exception blames the military regime that has held Burma, formerly known as Burma, in its grip for decades.

"Gambari will help," the money changer says, smiling.

Saturday saw only small demonstrations here and there, after major protests earlier in the week that left at least nine people dead.

"Of course we are afraid, we are unarmed," a librarian said.

Hopes seem to be turning toward Gambari, but disappointment at the likely outcome of the UN envoy's visit are also widespread, especially among the educated.

"The generals don't care about the opinion of other governments, they don't care about the opinion of their own people, and they certainly won't care about the clever advice of a UN diplomat," the author said.

Still, even Singapore's Foreign Minister George Yeo is holding out hope, saying the situation could worsen if the diplomatic measures fail.

His statements sound like a call to the people of Burma to hold in their anger. If they take to the streets during Gambari's visit, it could create added tension.

A dissident from the 1988 student generation also spoke out against further street protests, out of fear that the regime could strike back brutally.

"We must organise a boycott, all officials must stay and home in order to paralyze the land," said the woman in her mid-40s, who spent six years behind bars. "But it is unbelievably difficult to spread such a call."

Telephone lines have been cut often.

What Gambari can accomplish remains unclear. He has been to Burma often and has met with the highest circle of the military junta. His visits have at least shed a small light on the country, but calls for the release of Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi have been ignored.

Suu Kyi has spent years under house arrest since winning 1990 elections.

"Gambari, why do they all look to Gambari?" the dissident asks. "He is not one of us, the solution must come internally."

"Neither the protests, nor the sanctions, nor Gambari will convince the generals to give up power," the author said. "Our only hope, even if it is slim, is to have reform-minded people in the junta."//dpa