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Published on September 27, 2007

Washington DC

 That's what some Asean officials thought after President George W Bush called off the Asean-US summit scheduled for September 5 in Singapore. The meeting was supposed to commemorate the 30th anniversary of dialogue between Asean and the US, but its cancellation was understandable as Bush was preoccupied with the conflict in Iraq.

But the Asean concern was also justified as Southeast Asia hasn't been as high on the US foreign policy agenda since the Vietnam War. And there are also questions whether the rise of China may also come at the expense of US interest in Asean.

A US official agreed that the cancellation of the meeting didn't bode well in terms of showing the symbolic gesture of the US interest in Southeast Asia.

"We missed the opportunity to use the summit for public diplomacy," said the official, who asked not be named. 

Nonetheless, Washington is trying to make amends as Secretary of State Condolezza Rice proposed to meet her Asean counterparts today on the sidelines of the UN meeting in New York.

The US official said that in fact the administration has been working on a US cooperation plan with Asean as part of an initiative under the of US-Asean Plan of Action.

But the US has not got this message across well, he conceded. "Symbolism is important but the US has not done a good job because we don't have a big opportunity to show that the US views Asean as an important partner."

Cultural differences also make it difficult to convince the US leader to join Asean meetings, where the participants tend to keep to an informal format. 

"To have a US president travel to an Asean meeting in Asia is difficult. There's a difference in terms of mentality. The Asean way is to build up the relationship. We get together and talk and build from there."

"But you have a real problem when the picture that comes back from an Asean meeting is just [a photo call with] colourful shirts. The American audience doesn't understand that picture well. Americans will ask whether we are going to have any treaty or agreement," he said.

The rise of China has also put the US-Asean relationship in a new perspective. The US relationship with China is a rather complicated one.

"We are not hostile but we are not best friends either," the US official said.  "Based on observation from the Asean perspective, it's beneficial to have the US as a counterbalance to China," the official added.

China's rise not only has a security implication in the region but also an economic impact. China has become an important trading partner with the US, which records a trade deficit with China of US$250 billion a year, compared to the US trade deficit with Asean of US$40 billion a year.

Edward Gresser, director of the Trade and Global Markets Project of the Progressive Policy Institute, said US trade with China has risen rapidly over the past 10 years. Ten years ago, US trade (in goods) with Asean members stood at $106 billion, and with China at $63 billion. By 2006, two-way goods trade with China was $363 billion and with Asean $162 billion.

 "The question is whether the US government is comfortable with this trend, being heavily reliant on exports from China," Gresser said.

A US economist from the Heritage Foundation said that such concerns may prompt Asean to review its policy, especially as the US media recently played up the story of the product recalls from China over safety concerns. This may encourage the US to shift to Vietnam and Thailand for products such as toys and food.

Apart from trade, Asean integration may be too slow to prompt foreign investors to see Asean as a single market, except for the automotive sector.

"The tariff rate that Asean offers is not really a big advantage compared to the normal Most Favoured Nation rate for non-Asean countries. Moreover, the Asean rules of origin are confusing and mysterious." 

A recent survey showed that Asean scores 36 points below average in the world index of economic freedom.

"Asean needs to get the political commitment from the leaders," he added.

On the diplomatic level, another US official said that Washington is looking forward to a multilateral relationship with East Asia under Apec or Asean, compared to the current situation where the relationship is based mostly on the bilateral level. But the US has to watch the direction these organisations are heading in.

However, countries may find it difficult to deal with Asean as a group due to the diversity of Asean members, culturally and politically.

"There's an inherent political diversity in Asean. What happens in one country doesn't trigger changes in the others, unlike what happened in Latin America in the 1980s. There's no common political base in Asia," said an academic from Georgetown University.

Nonetheless, a member of a US business association said that the US's interest in the region would continue to be strong for two major reasons. First, as the region is home to a large Muslim population, counter-terrorism activities in the region will continue to attract Washington's attention. Second, the Strait of Malacca, between Peninsular Malaysia and Sumatra, is an important international shipping lane for oil. The amount of oil transported through the Strait is three times higher than that of the Suez Canal.

"So long as oil is moved through there, the US will have an interest in the region," he said.

To make up for the cancellation of the Asean summit, Bush extended an invitation to Asean leaders to his ranch in Crawford, Texas, some time next year.

The same source said, "It's amazing to see how diplomacy can go these days. Imagine the Asean leaders together at Bush's ranch, which is not really a big house, in the middle of nowhere."

Jeerawat Na Thalang

The Nation