• 
• 

Published on September 27, 2007

General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, who is due to retire as Army commander-in-chief in three days, has sent out mixed signals about what he plans to do with his life after September 30.

If it's a well-planned, stage-by-stage ruse to confuse the enemy, then we have to wait until the finale to find out how this genius plans to outflank the other side.

Perhaps he is simply adopting one of the crucial principles of the art of generalship as stipulated in Sun Tzu's famous "Art of War": he needs to be inscrutable.

As the classic Chinese war strategist put it: a great general needs to be "calm and sombre in thought, yet inscrutable and comprehensive in his strategy". If he is a great general, the "Art of War" states, "it would be almost impossible to know what goes on in his mind".

But, as a growing number of observers are beginning to fear, General Sonthi's ambivalence is becoming his main liability. The conflicting statements and persistently ambiguous assertions from the man who claimed he almost single-handedly staged the September, 2006 coup, may suggest that he is nothing but a nervous, ageing general caught up in his own delusion and wriggling his way out of a self-imposed trap.

His attempts to preserve enough "wriggle room" in his banter with reporters, particularly about his own political future, have proved to be self-destructive. He has not created what he hoped would be the kind of appeal that none of the political parties could afford to ignore.

First, Sonthi said he wasn't going to take any political role at all, directly or otherwise. His initial statement, soonafter throwing out Thaksin, was clear: he didn't stage the coup to grab power, he did it to pull the country back from the edge of disaster.

Then he said he would consider any political offer after his retirement. A change of mind? Well, he could argue that it's not so much a change of mind as a "tactical move".

And when he refused to deny rumours that he was considering running in the upcoming election, he was simply confirming that his "tactical move" had in fact turned into a "strategic shift". But his frequent sparring with reporters over all sorts of questions have made it increasingly clear the shift is, in fact, directionless, if not misguided.

"Wait for the new script. I am penning that for myself …" Sonthi declared one day out of the blue. That prompted serious observers in the political arena to wonder whether the coup leader was losing his way. He wasn't leading the country back to democracy. He was probably contemplating a role in the political soap opera.

And when he said there was "no hero" in the coup because it had all been carried out by himself and "two other colonels", Sonthi, deliberately or not, put himself into an isolated no-win situation.

Was he trying to absolve the two candidates for the Army's top post from any guilt related to the coup? Or was he suggesting that there was no hero except himself?

Now, with or without his collaboration, an embarrassing new situation has arisen. His close friend Defence Minister General Boonrawd Somtas came out last week to suggest in no uncertain terms that there was "a strong possibility" that Sonthi may be named deputy prime minister in the Surayud interim government.

Has this always been on the cards? Or is this a new twist in the ongoing and fast-paced political developments? Whatever it is, the irony won't be lost on most Thais.

Consider this paradox: Sonthi staged the coup and pleaded with Surayud, his former boss, to lead the new interim government. Sonthi, as chairman of the Council of National Security (the direct heir of the coup group), thus made himself the boss of his ex-boss.

Now, if Sonthi is made deputy premier in this outgoing Cabinet, he will report to Surayud, who technically reports to Sonthi in his capacity as CNS chairman. Who's the boss here?

What is even more confusing is that Sonthi has been quoted as saying that even if he is to be appointed deputy premier in the Surayud government, he would still retain his post as the CNS chairman.

Why? He is believed to have argued that without himself heading the CNS, nobody would counter-sign the appointment of a new prime minister in the event that Surayud should call it quits for whatever reason. This perfect mess would be amusing if it wasn't so increasingly absurd.

By Suthichai Yoon

(Share your views in my blog at blog.nationmultimedia.com/

ThaiTalk or check out www.suthichaiyoon.com)