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Published on September 26, 2007

Out of the blue political turbulence has broken out over ethical lapses involving three ministers accused of violating a 5 per cent cap on equity stakes and the prime minister has been left with no choice but to shuffle his Cabinet line-up.

When Surayud Chulanont returns on Saturday from his visit to the United Nations, his top priority is to stabilise his government in order to prevent a crash landing.

Alas Surayud is facing not just a sudden gust of political wind about ministerial ethical standards. A crosswind is also threatening to sweep him off his feet in the form of pressure to include junta chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin in the new line-up.

An ill-advised response to the turbulence may prove detrimental to all parties concerned.

Surayud has about a week to chart his next move and will likely end up with excess baggage regardless of whatever decision is made.

For almost a year, Interior Minister Aree Wongsearaya, Information and Communication Technology Minister Sitthichai Pookaiyaudom and Deputy Commerce Minister Oranuj Osathananda declared their assets without attracting undue attention.

The three duly reported their shares and other assets. They also assumed office under revised graft rules allowing them some flexibility for performing interim duties.

The 2006 Interim Constitution and the 2007 Constitution wavered the 5 per cent cap for interim ministers after concluding that the procedure would be cumbersome rather than constructive if enforced in the transition period.

It is no surprise that right after the announcement of the new military line-up, which General Saprang Kalayanamitr failed to secure the position of Army chief, certain activists began to question the assets of the three ministers.

It is also no secret that Aree is the main target of attack. This is a proxy war motivated out of spite and aimed at the junta chief. The hue and cry on Aree is seen as a payback against Sonthi who designates him as the lynchpin to oversee the general election on his behalf.

Sonthi's political future rests pretty much on the electoral outcome and the departure of Aree, if it occurs, will definitely upset his apple cart.

In order to quickly quell criticism about its leniency for the three ministers, the National Counter Corruption Commission chose to release the information about equity violations.

Even though the commission clearly pointed out the nature of the non-punishable offence, the public debate has not focused on legal issues but ethics. Critics question a possible double standard in connection with the ethical requirements applied to ousted government leaders and the ones for the interim administration.

Two Cabinet members, Sitthichai and Oranuj, have bowed out speedily in order to avoid a public backlash. The two plan to formalise their resignation after Surayud returns from New York.

Aree is fighting, however, to cling to office. But he appears to be losing his uphill battle and may succumb to pressure.

From a series of interviews in New York, Surayud has stated that he is willing to offer a Cabinet

post to Sonthi and that he will

leave it up to the three ministers to chart their own course.

The reading between the lines is that Surayud will definitely shuffle in his Cabinet. His message is clear: he will not stop the departure of the three ministers. He has distanced himself from Aree in order to force a decision whether to stay on or leave.

Leaks from Government House indicate a number of options for the new Cabinet line-up.

To replace Sitthichai, Surayud may hand-pick a newcomer

or reassign one of his ministers. Should he choose the latter option, PM's Office Minister Khunying Dhipavadee Meksawan is tipped

as a top contender.

The seat vacated by Oranuj has about 50-50 chance to be filled.

Should Aree decide to keep his job regardless of the consequences, he will certainly become a lightning rod attracting plenty of criticism. The government's popularity has already hit rock bottom and Aree's tainted record is unlikely to make a difference.

In case Aree opts to depart, Sonthi will likely replace him as well as holding a concurrent post of deputy prime minister.

Because the junta will turn ceremonial following Sonthi's retirement as Army chief on Sunday, Sonthi has to join the interim government in order to retain his relevancy. It is inevitable that he is relying on the interim government to jump-start his political career.

In welcoming Sonthi to his Cabinet, Surayud will end up with excess baggage. Opponents of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra are bitter about what they view as Sonthi's failure to uproot the Thaksin legacy. They are also critical about his decision to sideline Saprang.

These friends-turned-foe are expected to comb for dirt against Sonthi and will try to scuttle his political plans.

Avudh Panananda

The Nation