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Published on September 26, 2007

That he has become a headline star overnight, however, is not so intriguing as to the reasons why. The sudden attention to his "conflicts of interests", the identities of those behind the disclosures, and the puzzling reactions from all corners have been every conspiracy buff's dream come true.

From what we have gathered from the rumour mill, Aree is anything but a victim of the National Counter Corruption Commission's "clumsiness". More likely, the NCCC, spearheaded by spokesman Klanarong Chantik, zeroed in on him with calculated timing and strategy. In this scenario, the other two Cabinet members found to have business interests over the "ethically appropriate limits" - Commerce deputy minister Oranuj Osatananda and Information and Communication Technology minister Sitthichai Pookaiyaudom - are sacrificial lambs, which may explain why they rolled over so easily at the first hint of an outcry.

That's the simple part. From here the conspiracy theory splits into two opposing possibilities. The first school is influenced by the close connection between key graft busters - namely Klanarong and Auditor General Khunying Jaruwan Maintaka - and the newly heartbroken General Saprang Kalayanamitr.

What do these people and the likes of Prasong Soonsiri and Sondhi Limthongkul have in common? They were hell bent on deposing Thaksin Shinawatra but have been either disillusioned with interim prime minister Surayud Chulanont and junta leader Sonthi Boonyaratglin, or upset with how the cake has been divided following last year's coup.

Is the Aree issue the most subtle way to discredit Surayud and Sonthi? Despite the post-coup interim charter, allowing Cabinet members to have some involvement in businesses, the disclosure has embarrassed the government all the same. It will enable Thaksin to say, "Look, they forced me out at gunpoint for having conflicts of interest, and the first thing they do is condone the same sin in the interim government."

In Prasong, Saprang and Sondhi, we have three angry men with cunning or profoundly sinister minds. Prasong missed the chance to preside over either the interim Parliament or the Constitution Drafting Assembly, and he might have been quietly eyeing Aree's position. Saprang's ambition to become the new Army chief has been coldly snuffed out. And God knows how much Sondhi wanted and got in return from the coup. Adding to this theory's charms is the fact that Sittichai is a good pal of some people in this group.

But no matter how plausible this theory may sound, we will have to wait, of course, until it becomes clearer who benefits from the downfall of the three Cabinet members. Reports yesterday suggested that a Cabinet reshuffle, warranted by Sitthichai's and Oranuj's resignations and Aree's imminent departure, would include General Sonthi as deputy prime minister who could possibly double as, yes, interior minister.

There is a more conservative, albeit wishful, analysis: the NCCC has independently and innocently raised ethical questions against three Cabinet members, inadvertently inviting more scorn and contempt upon the under-fire interim leadership, but in the process paving the way for a Cabinet reshuffle that would ease junta leader Sonthi nicely into politics. That the NCCC's move comes amid Saprang's disappointment and Sonthi's imminent military retirement is, well, just a coincidence.

Normally, an issue concerning political "ethics" in Thailand lasts about three years and ends with the accused tiring everyone into forgetting about it. If Aree resigns today or tomorrow, it will set a new record which, however, will be too fast for comfort. In addition to the speed with which the Aree episode has evolved, the reactions of the relevant parties have been puzzling.

Instead of trying to capitalise on it, People Power Party leader Samak Sundaravej has taken Aree's side, saying he didn't need to resign as he hasn't broken any law. The Democrats say Aree should leave, a stance shared by the NCCC and the Election Commission. Samak, cynics say, could be just trying to lure the interim leadership into a trap, as allowing Aree to stay would make a mockery of the reasons why Thaksin had to be ousted. Or he just sees that Aree as interior minister would do PPP no harm in the next election.

Aree himself is a mystery as far as his relations with both Thaksin and Sonthi go. As the Interior Ministry will still have a role to play in elections, his past and present connections with the ex- and current rulers have once again been scrutinised. Whether those ties are one of the reasons why he has come under attack remains to be seen.

"Ethics" is a strange thing in Thailand, and how we long for the day when this word dissociates itself from politics and us the conspiracy theorists. The day that ethics are considered as they should be, that could be the day we achieve true political reform. As of now, it remains the term most abused by everyone - left, right and centre.

Tulsathit Taptim