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Published on September 25, 2007

By doing so, the LDP seems to be signalling its desire to restore internal order and return to full political strength.

The party is now trying to turn its fortunes around by passing the leadership torch from Abe, who displayed his immaturity as a prime minister, to Fukuda, who exudes a sense of stability.

As reform-minded, top-down style leaders, Abe and former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi both took a reformist line based on market fundamentalism and political manoeuvring, and made most major decisions without consulting the party.

In light of such circumstances, LDP members' sense of powerlessness and opposition to this style of leadership have been growing.

Faction leaders - keen to regain their power and influence - sensed this mood and steered party support in Fukuda's direction.

After carefully analysing statements made by Fukuda during the LDP presidential race, I would say the phrase "politics through dialogue" will be key for his administration, which will come into existence today.

Fukuda deems it vital to carefully explain to the general public the need for reformist policies. In the diplomatic realm, he believes it is important to engage in dialogue with other countries, including North Korea.

In addition to LDP factions, he also will open channels of communication with the Democratic Party of Japan - the largest force in the House of Councillors - to facilitate Diet business in light of the fact the ruling coalition only holds a majority in the House of Representatives.

Given the circumstances after the upper house election, Fukuda's "dialogue politics" may prove a valuable political tool.

However, to successfully realise his discourse-based vision, Fukuda will need concrete policies. Abe's sudden announcement of his intention to resign may be one reason for Fukuda's lack of preparation. Nevertheless, the details of his policies are sketchy at best.

Koizumi's postal privatisation and Abe's constitutional revision were the defining policies of the two leaders' respective administrations. But Fukuda differs from his two predecessors in that he has no single policy marked out for special prioritisation.

Most factions decided to bet on Fukuda becoming leader, without carefully analysing his policies. One of the reasons why Fukuda's sole presidential rival, LDP secretary-general Taro Aso, got a higher number of votes than expected, was that he garnered the votes of those critical of the prevailing party mood.

The Fukuda administration will have to negotiate with the DPJ to ensure the continuation of the Maritime Self Defence Force's refuelling mission in the Indian Ocean.

Talks also will be necessary on the rebuilding of the pension and other social security systems, and reforms of the tax and fiscal systems - including the possibility of a hike in the consumption tax rate.

In addition to dealing with such immediate issues, Fukuda's administration must have a clear vision for the future course of the nation. If it fails to do so, the new administration will needlessly and repeatedly be forced to compromise with the DPJ.

In a debate with Aso during the election campaign, Fukuda said, "It's a politician's job to solve problems".

To prepare for debate with the DPJ, the new LDP leader must not delay in producing a "Fukuda vision", which details specific policy proposals and priorities.

Gaku Shibata

tokyo

Gaku Shibata is the deputy political news editor of The Yomiuri Shimbun.