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Published on September 22, 2007

Discontent is brewing in Burma's commercial capital of Rangoon, and it could very well turn ugly. For the past four days, Buddhist monks have been carrying out public protests, slowly drawing the general public into the demonstrations against the military government. No one knows what the generals will do, but if the evidence of the country's recent bloody past is anything to go by, it is enough to instil fear into those around the world who care about the Burmese people's democratic aspirations. The junta has shown that it has no qualms about crushing dissent by any means necessary.

The military junta has insisted that it has no plan to call a state of emergency to quell the protests, which have posed the greatest challenge to the regime's iron-fisted rule for nearly two decades.  Nevertheless, the events of the past four days - the most sustained show of dissent in 20 years - has given a new lease of life to pro-democracy groups in Burma.

Braving intense rain and fear of a violent crackdown, hundreds of monks continue to demonstrate their resentment of a regime that has been condemned day-in, day-out by the international community. Its repressive rule has held back Burma's economic and social development and condemned the resource-rich country to the unenviable status of one of Asia's poorest.

As a neighbour that shares a long border, and as a fellow member of Asean, it is in Thailand's national interest to keep a close watch on the latest developments in Burma. Thailand must also come up with a contingency plan on to what to do if worse comes to worst. While Thailand should pursue good relations with the de facto government in Burma - which is a pariah in the world community - we must avoid taking any action that might be construed as lending legitimacy to the military regime, or of condoning its systematic violation of the political and human rights of its citizens.

Thailand needs to maintain a humanitarian policy and be prepared for any eventuality. This includes the possibility of an influx of political refugees in the event of a brutal crackdown. This humanitarian policy should be based on the fact that the regime in Burma undergoes frequent upheaval, and that the Burmese people and their democratic aspirations will outlast the junta.

There are more than one million Burmese people employed in this country as guest workers. They take up jobs - at awful rates of pay - that are rejected by Thais. The Thai government and people must recognise and show appreciation for the indispensable and valuable service provided by the hard-working Burmese here.

Our attitude must change. There are too many hypocritical Thais who claim to support the Burmese people's democratic aspirations but who do nothing to show that they care for the welfare of Burmese people in Thailand. Many Burmese here are subjected to extreme exploitation by unscrupulous Thai employers.

On the diplomatic and security fronts, whether we like it or not, the two countries will eventually have to address sensitive issues that traditionally are off-limits to public discussion. Overlapping territorial claims, border clashes, cross-border intrusions and allegations of a proxy war being waged along the border will have to be tackled through diplomatic channels. The hope is that this will lead to high-level discussions.

It is not in Thailand's national interest to have a weak Burma as neighbour. Indeed, it is in our interest to see a strong, democratic Burma that will one day rejoin the international community.

It is hoped that the junta will see the light and look for a graceful exit, hand power back to the people and return to barracks. But we all know too well that this is wishful thinking - and it once again raises the question of how long the stand-off will go on. Something has got to give, even if it means violent confrontation.

Thailand was in a similar predicament three decades ago when democratic forces and a military dictatorship clashed violently. Let's hope that Burma can find a way to avoid further loss of life during the slow and painful transition from dictatorship to democracy. Thais, who once again are trying to rebuild their own democracy after a spell of military rule, must show solidarity with the people of Burma, who are struggling against a much more obstinate and brutal junta.