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Published on September 18, 2007

Before the putsch that overthrew the government of Thaksin Shinawatra, his Thai Rak Thai Party was the dominant force in politics. With 377 MPs, it held an unshakeable majority in the 500-member House of Representatives.

Its closest rival, the Democrat Party, and other opposition parties could not make any effective challenge in Parliament.

Although the opposition had a sufficient number of MPs to launch censure motions against Cabinet members, it was not enough to grill the prime minister.

In Parliament there were only four political parties elected to the Lower House: Thai Rak Thai, Democrat, Chat Thai and Mahachon.

Soldiers were in their barracks and generals had to be content with their limited political role, a legacy of the May 1992 incident that toppled the non-elected prime minister General Suchinda Kraprayoon.

The military's image had been badly damaged at that time, as the generals were viewed as hungry for political influence without wanting to contest an election.

In the present post-coup landscape, the military has again become a key player. But unlike their predecessors in past coups, the generals who toppled the Thaksin administration prefer a low profile on the political stage.

Apart from appointing the current government, the National Legislative Assembly and the Constitution Drafting Assembly, they prefer to remain on the sidelines, only making political comments from time to time.

With the Thai Rak Thai Party dissolved in a Constitution Tribunal ruling on May 30 and 111 of its executives - including Thaksin - stripped of electoral rights for five years, the Democrat Party has become a resurgent force.

But there is no guarantee of an easy victory for the Democrats in the next general election, tentatively scheduled for December 23.

Thai Rak Thai's remnants have found a new home in the People Power Party and are determined to prevent the Democrats from attaining a clear majority in the next poll. For some reason, the People Power Party is not banned from contesting the election.

There are also many new political parties and parties in the making. These mostly consist of small groups of familiar politicians, some with very questionable backgrounds. Many of them were formerly with Thai Rak Thai or were past allies of Thaksin.

These politicians are projecting their groups as a third alternative to the two larger parties, which are expected to take the biggest share of House seats.

However, the "third alternative" movement is viewed as a possible proxy for the military - an attempt to weaken Thaksin's new surrogate party.

From the geo-political perspective, the Democrats are expected to win most of the seats in the South and Bangkok, but that is not enough to guarantee their victory.

The People Power Party will have to rely on the Northeast and the North if it wants to win the next election. There are many loyal supporters of Thaksin in those regions and the results of the August 19 national referendum on the draft constitution underlined that fact.

Most of the Northeast and a large part of the North voted against the charter. Many of the charter opponents are unhappy with the military influence in the drafting process, and it is undeniable that a large portion of them are sympathetic to Thaksin. They were certainly convinced by some of the "dirty-trick" campaigns against the constitution.

Meanwhile, Chat Thai and Mahachon will have to be content with their traditional strongholds in the Central region and part of the North.

The new parties - and it has now become clear that they are unlikely to contest the election as a unified force - will have to focus on the previous constituencies of their veteran candidates and former MPs. Many of these constituencies were previously held by Thai Rak Thai politicians who have since defected to other parties or formed the new groups.

Candidates from Thai Rak Thai, which is now relabelled as the People Power Party, will be up against their former colleagues in those constituencies.

Political Desk

 The Nation