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Published on September 18, 2007

Thai politics is likely to see the departure of Thaksin Shinawatra for good, leading social critic Thirayuth Boonmi said yesterday.

 Unlike many Latin American populist leaders who managed to return to power after being toppled, Thaksin has little chance to stage a return because the faith and loyalty of Thais are with the monarchy rather than a political lead-er, Thirayuth said.

"This up-coming election will see the termination of the Thaksin regime. His People Power Party may win the majority, but not enough to form a single-party government. Social, political and business sectors will also join forces to block Thaksin's clique," Thirayuth said.

"They will go to polls with a common mission to uproot Thaksin's power."

Thirayuth, also Thammasat University's sociologist, estimated that Thaksin's People Power Party may win about 190 seats in December's election, while the former opposition coalition combined may win about 275 seats.

Some leading political scientists also ruled out the People Power Party's chance to become a part of the next government even though it may win the majority seats as a single party, thanks to voters in the North and the Northeast.

"Not a single chance for the People Power Party to come close to power," Thammasat University's Kasian Tejapira told The Nation on Sunday. "Not even if it wins 480 seats."

"Thaksin and his people know this, but they will continue to struggle and stir up trouble," added Chulalongkorn University's Thitinan Pongsudhirak. "But I think they will make a strong opposition party."

Speaking on the eve of the anniversary of the September 19 coup, Thirayuth agreed with Thitinan and other academics that the junta-installed government of General Surayud Chulanont had failed the test because of its lack of vision, leadership and determination to get rid of corruption from Thailand.

"This is a testimony that military coups are no longer a solution to political conflict in this society," Thirayuth said. "Although the junta itself barely passed the test because it managed to dig into Thaksin corruption cases, its leaders should not pursue their political ambitions"

Thirayuth said the next government was likely to be at least a three-party coalition led by the Democrats.

The new prime minister will need to be armed with economic vision, decisiveness, the ability to win the hearts of both rural people and those in business sector and to master the art of dealing with many interest groups.

"A lack of these qualifications in the new leadership, then Thailand will quickly fall back into the usual political quagmire of corruption and competing interests," Thirayuth said. "This is because every party will try to stuff its pockets with lots of cash because they know they will have to compete with the old power clique and their seemingly endless supply of resources in the election after the next one."

Nantiya Tangwisutijit

 The Nation