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Published on September 15, 2007

Thailand's political landscape is showing signs of life with the new Constitution coming into force and a general election tentatively scheduled for late December. The election is supposed to produce a new democratically elected civilian government to take over from the military-appointed interim government and usher in a fresh attempt to rebuild democracy. It is hoped that the electoral process will restore a democracy that is resilient and sustainable - which means a democracy that not only produces a capable, effective and honest government to serve the people but one that also comes equipped with in-built mechanisms to solve its own problems through constitutional means.

Whether such hopes are achievable depends on how well the Thai people have learned the political lessons of the recent past. If the current state of the political party system and the attitude of the rural masses are any indication, the situation does not look very promising.

Existing parties have for some time been preparing to contest the nationwide polls. Former opposition parties like the Democrats, Chat Thai and Mahachon, which had hoped to gain some advantage following the dissolution of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's Thai Rak Thai Party, are in for a big disappointment.

Politicians who belonged to Thai Rak Thai have regrouped under the new Palang Prachachon Party (People Power Party) banner. The Thaksin loyalists remain strong because they can count on the ex-prime minister, still their political master, to inject huge amounts of cash to make up a formidable electoral war chest. And Thaksin continues to be popular among rural voters in the Northeast and the North. Barring unforeseen circumstances, the Palang Prachachon Party, widely viewed as Thaksin's nominee, is expected to emerge as one of the biggest winners in the upcoming election.

But the creation of the For the Motherland Party, which presents itself as an alternative to the anti-Thaksin parties like the Democrats, Chat Thai and Mahachon - as well as pro-Thaksin ones like Palang Prachachon - represents a major change in the political equation. Many members of the For the Motherland Party are former Thaksin followers who jumped ship after he was deposed. They are united by a common fear of reprisal if Thaksin loyalists emerge victorious and gain power. It is feared that if Thaksin loyalists win and form the next government, they will try to absolve the former PM of his alleged crimes. If he is convicted, they may work to get him pardoned. Indeed the Palang Prachachon Party has promised it will do just that.

The next election will be a three-horse race which, in itself, is not a bad thing - as long as the three groups compete in a free and fair process. But the prospects do not look good. One only has to look at the sort of sordid goings-on that many dishonourable politicians are now engaging in. Incumbents in the previous House of Representatives, dissolved when the military staged the coup on September 19 last year, are now offering themselves to the highest bidders who are trying to assemble new parties in a hurry.

Unlike long-established parties like the Democrats - which have been built on principles by people who share an ideology and belief, and who work together to develop policies to achieve democratic power - the likes of Palang Prachachon and For the Motherland have no interest in developing as democratic, principled organisations. These parties have been set up to achieve specific, short-term objectives: the first of these being to win the election and install their leaders in positions of power. Many of these politicians, who have neither the patience nor time to build their parties as democratic institutions, have no compunction about buying votes or engaging in other dishonest electoral practices to achieve their aims. The sad truth is that most poverty-stricken rural folk demand to be paid for their votes.

Seventy five years after the introduction of parliamentary democracy under the constitutional monarchy in this country, the corruption-prone system of patronage continues to shape and define Thai politics. The problem is that the majority of people, particularly the rural masses, have been conditioned so effectively that they are quite comfortable within this patron-client relationship. This goes against everything that genuine democracy means.

Unless Thais disavow themselves of this self-defeating character trait, the future of democracy in this country will not be secure.