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Published on September 8, 2007

The scene may even bring back a sense of nostalgia for the last time the two met in Hanoi last year.

As with any blockbuster movie, there's so much anticipation and high drama before the actual event. One year ago, Bush, the leader of a country that champions the value of democracy to the world, met the Thai premier who came to power after the coup against the democratically elected government.

Washington had earlier expressed concern over the situation in Thailand because the US cared so much about the Kingdom.

To recap, there were news reports that Bush might not shake hands with Surayud, to show his disapproval of the situation here. Some even expected that Bush would avoid looking Surayud in the eye for fear of failing to hide his contempt for the junta-installed government. Some even expected that if the meeting were held at Brokeback Mountain, Bush might have slapped Surayud in the face.

Eventually the story evolved like a slow, romantic film. There was no drama or violence to excite fans hoping for an action-packed conclusion, but the plot twist came when Surayud told a press conference at the end of the Apec summit last year: "I believe that the president understands what's going on Thailand at the moment."

And to prove it, Bush didn't just say so but also shook Surayud's hand and patted him on the back.

Surayud added that he was touched.

No words could better describe the scene than the well-known line from Casablanca, "Here's looking at you, kid."

The scene faded out. Credits rolled as all the Apec heads of government turned out for a photo call in the traditionally disastrous Apec fashion show.

One year has passed, and now we await the sequel to "When Bush Meets Suruyud". The scene is set in the same old Apec corridors where more than 20 leaders engage in a series of meetings: bilateral, threesome, quadruple and group.

Unfortunately this time the hype has been underwhelming, and if Episode 1 had a lame ending despite all the promises, this one probably won't merit your ticket money. Washington's mind is wandering elsewhere, in spite of a series of events that have made the Thai interim government more vulnerable than ever.

The Council for National Security faces increased criticism over concerns that it wants to hang onto power. Deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is globetrotting, making headline news every day, even though he's not even in Thailand. The Surayud government is accused of implementing inward-looking policies, largely because of its plan to tighten the foreign-business law and its 30-per-cent capital-control requirement. Thai free-trade talks with the US have been put on hold pending an elected government. Martial law, which the CNS imposed after the coup in September last year, is still in effect.

However, life moves on in Thailand, in spite of intermittent international criticism. Washington is silent, as Bush's interest in Apec is just window-dressing, like the costume he has to wear at the end of the meeting. Bush recently decided not to join the meetings between Asean leaders on the sideline of the Apec summit this year, and nobody seems to care what Bush may say to Surayud, since the US president's mind is obviously on the war in Iraq, which will be the biggest political issue in the US election year.

Even if Surayud is eager to tell Bush that Thailand will hold a general election on December 23, Bush may be thinking: "Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn."

Sometimes diplomacy leads us astray. Maybe this has been a case of much ado about nothing from the very beginning.

But it's déjà vu all over again at the moment. Now many are concerned that Bangkok may hurt the European Union's feelings by refusing to let the EU monitor the Thai general election on December 23. Some academics fear that Surayud's tough stance on the issue may give the Kingdom a bad name, bringing down the country's reputation to the level of ... well, we don't want to name names.

Eventually what the government decides must be based on the country's best interests. The hype over the EU observers may create a diplomatic hiccup, but in the long run what does Thailand really count for to the EU? This is not to say that foreign observation of the election is bad, but it must be carried out with the country's benefit in mind, not because of the fear that some "allies" might be offended or upset.

Diplomacy is meant to provide balance in foreign relations, but the word "sovereignty" has set all parties off on the wrong foot. Diplomacy has made things stickier. In the case of Thailand and her friends, there's always either too much or too little diplomacy. And our "special envoy" in London doesn't help much.

 

Jeerawat Na Thalang