Look for few upsets in rugby World Cup

Former rugby minnows such as Italy and Argentina have made impressive strides, and could make it to the quarter-finals for the first time this year.

 But it will be an upset of monumental proportions if the winner of this year's tournament is anyone but the sides who have contested the preceding five World Cup finals: Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, England and France.

 In 2003, England became the first nation from the northern hemisphere to win the World Cup, thanks in large part to the genius of fly half Jonny Wilkinson.

 Hosts France are hoping to repeat that feat this year, counting on the same home effect that helped the French footballers win the World Cup at home in 1998. But the rugby team does not have a player who possesses the genius and rage to win of Zinedine Zidane, or even of Wilkinson.

 The French are swift, creative and strong on defence, and scrum half Pierre Mignoni and fly half David Skrela looked like world-beaters in the Six Nations tournament, which the French won.

 But the side has a history of self-destructing through carelessness and of wilting under pressure. In addition, they are in the difficult Pool D, which includes Ireland and Argentina, ranked fifth and sixth by the International Rugby Board.

 Friday's opener against the rugged, hard-scrummaging Pumas should reveal what stuff the Blues are made of this year. The match between Ireland and Argentina will decide who moves on to the quarter-finals.

 Top-ranked New Zealand is expected to sail through the qualifying round without problems, since they have never lost to any of their Pool C opponents.

 And on form, the team around explosive Fiji-born wing Joe Rokococo, who has scored an impressive 38 tries in 45 international matches, are logical title favourites, having won the Tri-Nations Cup in June and July with impressive wins against South Africa and Australia. And they destroyed France in two friendlies in June.

 But since winning the World Cup in 1987, the All-Blacks have always been favoured to win the tournament and have always come up short, losing one final and three semi-finals.

 The second team to go through from the pools stage will probably be decided on September 29 when Italy meet Scotland in St. Etienne.

 The team most ripe for an upset are the holders England. The side have not impressed since their World Cup triumph, due in large part to a series of injuries to Wilkinson, who seems to have spent more time in the infirmary over the past four years than on the pitch.

 Wilkinson is sidelined again, having sustained an ankle injury in training this week. His absence from his team's opening match against the United States is unlikely to have an effect on the outcome, but he will need to be fit for England to defeat Pool A favourites South Africa and to entertain serious ambitions in the tournament.

 If England falter, look for the rugged Samoans to deliver the knockout and join pool favourites and 1995 World Cup champions South Africa in the quarter-finals.

 Australia look certain to waltz through their Pool B matches, with only 2005 Six Nations champion Wales likely to put up any resistance.

 The only two-time World Cup winners, the Wallabies have the toughest defence in the world and boast the most experienced side in the tournament, with four players who have already won the title.

 It could well be that the 2007 World Cup will be decided in the October 13 semi-final match in the Stade de France outside Paris.

 If the tournament goes according to form, that match will feature Australia against New Zealand. The other semi-final will likely pit South Africa against the French.

DPA