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Published on September 4, 2007

The Council for National Security (CNS) is facing a dilemma - although it has set a clear timetable to fade from the scene - and is under mounting pressure to become a lame duck ahead of its departure.

The fate of the CNS hinges on how soon martial law in some 35 provinces will be lifted.

Following the September 19 coup, the CNS has been vested with a most powerful mandate and it has dispensed its power via the interim government.

Martial law is the legal instrument for the military to retain power and override normal administrative procedures. Without it, the CNS is nothing but a paper tiger.

CNS chairman General Sonthi Boonyaratglin has made a passionate argument for the continuation of martial law on grounds of security. He, however, is finding himself becoming isolated.

All the major political parties, including the Democrats and People Power, democracy advocates, supporters of the ousted government and foreign allies have called for a speedy lifting of martial law before the elections.

Practically everyone outside the military circle sees martial law as an obstacle for a free and fair vote. Politicians of all stripes argue that draconian security measures will impede campaigning.

Although Sonthi is adamant about martial-law enforcement, his lone voice seems to have been eclipsed by the din of opposition.

If Sonthi has his way, he would obviously want to have martial law in place until an elected government is ready to take office.

He does not view martial law provisions in connection with the run-up to the election in the same way as democracy advocates and politicians do. His priority is to maintain the relevance of the CNS up to the last minute of its dismantling.

There is a possibility of him consenting to lifting martial law in exchange for a speedy passage of the Internal Security Bill.

The military and politicians are speaking on a different wavelength. Soldiers are viewing themselves as having an indispensable role to ensure stability and to accomplish this they need the legal tools to do their job.

On the other hand, politicians are concerned about the presence of soldiers jeopardising the elections.

From the military point of view, the elections are part of the restoration of democratic rule. Sonthi views martial law as helping him to do his job in safeguarding a smooth transition to an elected government.

He also anticipates problems before and after the elections to resolve which military involvement may be required. For example, the CNS would have no say in fighting money-politics if martial law is lifted ahead of the polls.

In another scenario, soldiers will be completely on the sidelines should former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra decide to return to fight charges, triggering post-election tensions.

Sonthi has, without a doubt, good intentions to maintain security. And he may have a good reason to feel confident that he can accomplish his job without interfering with campaigning activities.

Many parts of Thailand have remained under martial law for decades and no one seems to have noticed it.

To allow soldiers to protect the porous borderline, martial law has been enforced since the Cold War. In 1991, the Anand Panyarachun government placed 21 provinces under martial law and at least three general elections have taken place smoothly despite the security measures.

The CNS has enlarged the martial law areas with 14 additional provinces.

To be fair to Sonthi and his soldiers, martial law has never stood in the way of Thai elections.

But the real issue is not about the impact of martial law on the polls. It is about the confidence society has placed in the CNS.

Politicians do not welcome the involvement of soldiers in elections and see martial law as a short cut for soldiers to meddle in the electoral process.

All sectors of society appear to have a different reaction to the 1991 martial law when compared to the one imposed by the CNS.

Sonthi has misconstrued martial law for backing his clout. If he and his soldiers fail to secure public confidence, no laws in the world can boost the projection of power.

The 10 million votes to reject the charter in the August 19 referendum are a case in point to illustrate the CNS is already the lame duck - even with martial law intact.

Avudh Panananda

 The Nation