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Published on August 20, 2007

The result points to what may happen in the next general election.

Voters voted in line with directions adopted by political parties and factions. "People in the South supported the Democrats by voting yes while people in the North and Northeast cast their ballots along Thai Rak Thai group lines," former Thai Rak Thai member Suwat Liptapanlop said.

In the capital, twice as many votes were cast for the draft charter as against. Bangkok voters bought the junta's pitch that a yes vote would result in the early restoration of political order.

Bangkokians used their charter votes to dump what they called the "Thaksin regime" - the same as they did last year by opting for a "no vote" to reject his government.

People in the South - a stronghold of the Democrat Party - cast a majority of yes votes. The Democrats had declared their acceptance of the charter, although they said it was far from perfect.

Voters in the Central and lower North regions - political bases of the Chart Thai and Mahachon parties and the Machima group - voted according to the positions of these political entities: acceptance of the charter.

The margin between yes and no in the North was narrow because the military played a crucial role in manipulating the referendum.

The Third Army Region deployed troops to control the movements of politicians there, a stronghold of the now defunct Thai Rak Thai and Thaksin's home region.

Several anti-junta campaigns were blocked. Many activists who campaigned against the charter were arrested.

People in the Thai Rak Thai strongholds ensured the overall national result was close.

There was a wide margin in the Northeast, with voting clearly against the military-sponsored constitution. Yes votes prevailed only in Nakhon Ratchasima and Buri Ram, thanks to heavy campaigning by the military.

Nakhon Ratchasima is the headquarters of the Second Army Region and a stronghold of a breakaway Thai Rak Thai faction led by Suwat - who announced earlier his group accepted the charter.

Meanwhile, the military watched Buri Ram closely. It believed Thaksin loyalist Newin Chidchob would spend money to manipulate the referendum.

Prior to the vote the military spun information that anti-junta groups splurged cash to buy votes against the constitution. It was rare to find evidence proving this.

The referendum was a warm up for political parties ahead of a general election due in late December, Suwat said. Parties must study the score carefully when they plan for it, he said.

Democrat Korbsak Sabhavasu said the referendum result reflected the fact the defunct Thai Rak Thai party was weaker, but the Democrats would face an uphill task in the next election.

The dissolution of the Thai Rak Thai did not automatically give any political advantage to the Democrats, he said.

Political analyst Sukhum Nualsakul said a high disapproval rate in the Northeast indicated the Thai Rak Thai group was still powerful. Some politicians who split from it will return soon, he added.

If Sukhum is correct, politics will be almost the same as before the coup. Political divides will be even deeper.

Political Desk

The Nation