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Published on August 18, 2007

The Kingdom was relatively calm yesterday as Thais prepared for a historic weekend that will shape their immediate political future after more than two years of turbulence.

Interim Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont called on his compatriots to vote according to their conscience, though with a conspicuous promise that a general election would "definitely" take place this year if the constitution draft passes tomorrow's referendum.

Pro- and anti-draft movements have been campaigning fiercely, but the latter has been caught in a dilemma between wanting to condemn the September 19 coup-makers through a "No" vote, yet thereby creating more uncertainties that could inadvertently prolong their stay.

Anti-draft activists also appeared to have acknowledged their disadvantages - both in terms of public-relations mechanisms and the results of recent opinion polls that showed people heavily in favour of the draft. The anti-coup movement has looked beyond tomorrow's vote and is planning a further campaign to have the draft amended if it becomes the new constitution.

The anti-draft activists are expecting strong support from the "reluctant Yes" populace, which includes the likes of Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva. He insisted yesterday that he was "not totally happy" with the draft, but its passage would provide a semblance of stability that could help Thai politics return to normal.

Latest polls indicate a growing number of "reluctant Yes" voters. Also, intelligence gathering by the military leadership has reportedly found a similar trend, easing initial worries that it was going to be a very close contest.

"From the latest assessment, the margin is about 70 per cent "yes", against 30 per cent "no"," said a source from the Army.

Some 46 million Thais are eligible to vote in the referendum. They will have a choice of voting either yes or no. The Army expects a voter turnout of about 60 per cent - 25 million to 27 million people.

Approval of the draft charter will pave the way for a general election some time in the middle of December, and the installation of a civilian government early next year.

Proponents and opponents of the draft charter went all out to influence public opinion as the referendum drew near, but things have been relatively peaceful in the past few days.

Gen Surayud said he was not certain about the outcome of the referendum because it depended on the judgement of the Thai people, and called on his compatriots to exercise their conscience.

"We have to wait for the decision of the people. I have not tried to gather any information or to predict the outcome of the referendum. I have no idea about this. But we are waiting for the outcome and the government is willing to accept whatever the decision of the Thai people," he said.

However, the government and the military leadership have been working hard to mobilise the public opinion to support the draft. They have focused their campaign on the grass-roots voters in the North and the Northeast, which remains the stronghold of the Thaksin regime.

Remnants of the Thaksin regime and pro-democracy activists have been campaigning furiously to kill the draft, arguing that a "Yes" vote would mean acceptance of the military coup. However, a government source claimed urban voters were largely in favour of the document.

"We are not concerned about the voters in the urban areas because most of them support the constitution," said the Army source.

Commenting on the anti-draft activists' claim that the referendum was virtually a choice between Thaksin and the coup, Surayud said: "I think every Thai knows that to get back to an election path we need a constitution. If Thais don't accept this draft, we will just have to bring up an old charter so we can move on.

"This is not about a choice between individuals or confrontation between anyone. We just want to achieve our aim - to bring Thailand out of this critical period and back to a democratic system. We want to have an election and an elected government as soon as possible."

Political Desk

The Nation

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