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Published on August 8, 2007

But to be fair with all you fans craving for what my repaired crystal ball now sees, let me remind you that the last time I bombed on the party dissolution rulings, and inexplicably failed to predict that Thaksin Shinawatra would become Manchester's favourite son.

I have come to realise that conservative predictions no longer suit the Thai political script, which seems to be the work of rogue teenagers high on marijuana and taking turns at the keyboard. Therefore, if you think that I'm drunk this time, the answer is no.

Will the constitution draft pass the referendum?

You bet. Not because it's good, but because it has to, just like when Thaksin needed to win more than 11 million votes in the wake of the Temasek infamy last year.

Not only do both cases involve high stakes, sadly some methods and tactics to achieve the desired goal may also be the same this time round.

Turnout will be low, though, with 60 per cent a cause for celebration. And whereas the junta must prefer a convincing public approval of the draft, it will be in fact a narrow passage, like last year's nullified election results in reverse.

By the way, I know you haven't read it. Please go and do your homework after finishing this article.

Could Samak Sundaravej be the next freedom fighter?

Why not? He has all it takes - a fearless mouth and enough charisma to ensure that if something were to happen to him, his plight would go international.

Without these qualities you can still become one of Thailand's best-known restaurant critics. I met one such critic the other day and he couldn't thank Samak enough. He said that when the potential leader of the People Power Party, the new haven of former Thai Rak Thai MPs, was interior minister in the wake of the Thammasat bloodbath, authorities launched a crackdown on journalists and writers - himself included - critical of the then military-backed government's rule.

He was told to stop writing, plain and simple, but after he agreed to write just about food, they allowed him to continue and he went on to thrive in his new field.

The People Power Party needs a charismatic leader badly and seems to be pinning lots of hope on Samak. I'm convinced he will take the job, and once he does there will be so much fun.

Will General Sonthi Boonyaratglin get sucked into the "blackhole"?

Ninety per cent of my colleagues have concluded that there's no stopping him, but I beg to differ. Out of sheer blind faith in the sanity of mankind if you will, I foresee him changing his mind at the last second, coming to the realisation that by entering politics now he would betray everything, himself included.

How many games before City fans tell Frank to go his own way?

Manchester City supporters have made Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch sound like a referee who awards a penalty to an away team. (Please check out video clips and photos on how he charmed - no, "intoxicated" - the blue half of Manchester on one of our webblogs.) But hey, populism is only possible when you use somebody else's, preferably the state's, money.

The team has relatively tough early fixtures. They play West Ham away on the opening day, followed by an easy home game against Derby County, and have to host champions Manchester United and travel to London to play Arsenal. This is a very tricky start, failing which more mini concerts and imported Thai food may be required.

I predict the club will flirt with relegation by its 10th game, at which point the honeymoon ends, and coach Sven-Goran Eriksson will leave next year because he will be unable to bear Thaksin's interference in team selection.

The big game against Manchester United will be played on referendum day, August 19, and broadcast live to Thailand on cable TV. The best bet is on General Sonthi and interim Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont wearing Man U scarves in front of ballot boxes on that day.

Will he sell the club?

I have never been so sure in my life. I know the whole script is so crazy that some of you must be imagining Manchester City winning the Champions League next season, prompting Thai democrats to pull all their resources to buy another Premier League team, but trust me on this. He will do it, his way, and that's for sure.

 Tulsathit Taptim