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Published on August 7, 2007

Rival political camps are surging forward at full speed to secure the best positions for the general election, a good sign of politics getting back on course once again.

In less than two weeks, voters will cast ballots to either accept or reject the draft charter in the country's first referendum.

All major opinion polls indicate a favourable outcome with flying colours for the new constitution.

The new constitution is slated to mark a new chapter of democratic rule. It is not only a road map for politics but also an unequivocal "no" to any attempt to revive populist policies.

As the country's defi-ning law, it will enshrine HM the King's theory of sufficiency economy as the beacon to guide future governments.

The Thai Rak Thai remnants disguised under the People Power Party banner might find it difficult to continue campaigning on a populist platform, which could land them in serious trouble with the law.

Their best bet to win re-election is to hype up the sentiment toward former prime minister Thaksin Shinwatra. They might also rely on their individual ties with constituents. Their designated leader, Samak Sundaravej, is a clear signal that Thaksin's die-hard supporters will sway votes by rhetoric instead of policy.

Although some 200 former MPs have lined up to become Thaksin's proxies, how many of them will secure victory remains a big question mark.

In the North and Northeast, these former MPs may see their Democrat rivals as small fry. But they are also up against friends-turned-foe following the disbanding of Thai Rak Thai.

Formidable rivals to undermine the Thai Rak Thai remnants comprise factions led by Suwat Liptapanlop, Somsak Thepsuthin and Pracharaj Party leader Snoh Thienthong.

Thaksin's ally-turned-opponent Purachai Piumsombun is poised to form a new party. Purachai's party will act as an antidote to Thaksin's popularity.

The soon-to-be-formed Rak Chart Party is seen as the military's proxy and will help widen the dragnet against Thaksin's revenge.

Former prime minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh and veteran politician Chalerm Yoobamrung are to come out of retirement and return to the political scene.

Chavalit and Chalerm expect to gain bargaining leverage by winning House seats from Bangkok and the Northeast.

The two have charted their course as wild cards crucial to either the coalition or the opposition.

It remains unclear whether Chavalit will join the race or take up an advisory role, although Chalerm is ready to fully resume his political career.

Emerging factions, such as the group led by Pramuan Ruchana-seree and financed by industrialist Prachai Leophairatana and another clique from the "old money families", are expected to add colour to the polls.

The former opposition alliance of Democrat, Chat Thai and Mahachon parties will campaign hard to form the next coalition government.

With or without Thaksin on the scene, the Democrats seem to have fumbled time and again in trying to promote their "People First" campaign slogan.

Although Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva has all the right credentials for the position of prime minister, he appears to have a hard time convincing voters that he is the right man for the job. The combined strongholds of the three parties - Democrat in the South and Bangkok, Chat Thai in the Central Region and Mahachon in the lower North, are not enough for a clear mandate.

The three must succeed in either snatching significant numbers of constituencies from Thai Rak Thai remnants, or enlarging the alliance to include splinter groups.

Even if junta chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin eventually adopts the Democrat banner, Abhisit and his secretary-general Suthep Thaugsu-ban have yet to prove their worthiness as flag bearers for democratic rule in the post-Thaksin era.

There are now about 10 political parties at the starting post for the race to win the people's mandate and restore normalcy following a year-long hiatus from democratic rule.

Unfortunately, the bottom line is that these parties represent only two opposing poles - for or against Thaksin's leadership.

The military intervention a year ago happened because of the polarisation over leadership.

The return of democracy will depend on the successful exorcism of Thaksin's ghost.

Avudh Panananda

The Nation