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Published on August 2, 2007

Dr Prasert Thongchareon, a senior WHO medical adviser, said the study model for scenarios from 2008 to 2010 estimated that Thailand's economy could lose between Bt4.7 billion and Bt46 billion in 2008, increasing to between Bt4.8 billion and Bt47.2 billion in 2010.

The average loss would be Bt992 to Bt2,417 per head per year. He said the estimate was based on medicare, drug charges and absence from work.

"We estimate the best case would be 150,000 patients and the worst case around 600,000 for influenza. If do not prepare right now, we can expect the worst," Prasert said.

The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19 claimed 50 million lives.

In 1950, an Asian influenza outbreak killed more than one million people; 11 years later, a Hong Kong outbreak killed another million.

Even though a flu pandemic occurs only two or three times per century, the WHO adviser has also expressed concern about avian influenza causing a human pandemic.

Tawee Chotpitayasunundh, senior medical officer at the Medical Science Department, said the government had approved a budget of Bt9 billion for a pandemic contingency plan and had allocated Bt1.4 billion to build a vaccine plant in Saraburi. The WHO has provided US$2 million (Bt67 million) for the plant.

The plant is expected to be producing flu vaccine in five years. It will produce two million doses of vaccine per year and this amount is considered enough for the Thai population.

"If we import vaccines from Western drug companies, we have to wait more than six months. In the event of a pandemic, no one will sell drugs to us. It might be too late for patients during a pandemic," Tawee said.

Pongphon Sarnsamak

The Nation