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Published on July 22, 2007

Why has this much-heralded public-relations stunt yet to become a done deal despite the hyperbole voiced by the disgraced politician in exile due to a series of corruption allegations, dubious stock transactions and financial shenanigans?

In the next few days, another legal struggle could ensue, with an arrest warrant being issued for his wife, who now joins him in London to keep out of the reach of Thai law enforcement.

But the real blow not admitted by Sinatra, was the major setback dealt to his plans to use the Man City deal as a smokescreen for a larger plan to set up a casino - or more than one - in Manchester, which he intended to be the first site for his plan to build super casinos.

Tony Blair's successor, Prime Minister Gordon Brown, scrapped the casino plan and British reporters concluded, it was dead in the water. This should surely upset Blair, a known buddy of Sinatra at teatime with both claiming a close relationship.

Thaksin's timing was unfortunate, and so was Blair's. If the super-casino plan had gone well, both Thaksin and Blair would be joint winners. With Brown's big foot in the door, both should be reviewing their plans as well as their futures.

Surely, the proposal to buy Man City must be much less attractive now that the smokescreen has been blown away, revealing what Thaksin actually had up his sleeve with his football ownership plans, which were regarded as a funny choice by others.

What's more, his lawyers should be considering whether to keep Thaksin as a super client in view of the anti-money laundering law and other tough legislation against high crimes and holders of "criminal properties" in England.

The judgement in the trial of ex-president of Zambia, Dr Frederick Chiluba and 20 others, should make Thaksin's lawyers seriously rethink whether the tempting fees are worth risking heavy fines, possible jail terms and the permanent loss of their reputations.

Thaksin could be put in a predicament similar to that of the Zambians if Thai authorities hired an English law firm, particularly DLA Piper, which represented the Zambian government, to represent Thai claims to Thaksin's money from dubious sources and funds stashed abroad, which are believed to total around Bt200 billion.

The scrapping of the super-casino plan in England would make Thaksin's heart sink deeper, unless he joins hand with his friends in China to venture out into casinos either in Macao with casino king Stanley Ho, or elsewhere.

Macao is not far from Thailand, but Thaksin can always escape to Taiwan or any Middle East destination to avoid an extradition request from Thailand. Being in Australia for a casino venture also poses a high physical risk, because someone with a strong grudge against him is staying in a Darling Harbour apartment, waiting patiently to settle a score with Thaksin.

Both share a common predicament - escaping from the arm of the Thai law for criminal charges.

The fates of Thaksin and his family members are trapped in deep misfortune. His younger sisters and other in-laws are gradually facing investigations on asset concealment and questionable wealth. A long legal ordeal could be very long, particularly if Thaksin-backed political parties fail to regain power in the upcoming elections sometime late this year.

Thaksin's friend, Vichit Suraphongchai, now executive chairman of Siam Commercial Bank, is due to face a tough investigation from the Assets Examination Committee over suspect stock and financial shenanigans over Temasek Holdings' acquisition of Shin Corp stocks.

An investigation focusing on Vichit, whose abrupt departure as president of Bangkok Bank years ago was never nicely explained, was strangely slow in coming considering his significant role in concluding the Temasek deal through a nominee and the initial financing of Bt26 billion provided equally by Bangkok Bank and Siam Commercial Bank under a guarantee from Union Bank of Switzerland.

Vichit's high-profile roles in granting millions of baht to a Chinese friend of Thaksin's in a potash venture, and King Power duty-free outlets at the Bangkok airport, both now destined to be troubled ventures, could also soon be investigated, putting him in grave conditions. He recently signed on as a board member of Shin Corp following long criticism concerning conflicts of interest.

Vichit was able to complete the big deal  because he is close to Temasek CEO Madame Ho Ching. Vichit was also chums with both Richard and Charles Ong, brothers born in Malaysia involved with Thaksin in different capacities.

Both brothers suffered severe setbacks in their respective careers almost at the same time. Richard, working as the chief investment banker handling Thaksin's account for Goldman Sachs Group in Singapore, was recently moved to Beijing as chief executive for joint ventures. He failed to get the top job because his Mandarin was too weak - a strong prerequisite for Beijing financial authorities. Richard was eventually replaced by another executive.

Charles, who was Temasek's chief investment officer and senior managing director, was recently demoted to chief strategist. Media speculation was that the deal between Temasek and Shin Corp has not been smooth. Temasek was severely bruised by poor judgement in the investment and political relations with Thailand.

Thaksin is struggling hard to keep his nose above water. His family members are suffering similar shame and stress. It will be interesting to find out who survives the current spate of misfortune resulting from pure greed and the failure to conduct business in an honest manner. Repeated claims of having made an "honest mistake" can no longer impress judges. It has become too familiar.

Sopon Onkgara