Regional perspective :Rejuvenating the stalled friendship with Russia

Her trip on behalf of HM the King immediately recalls the good old days before real politik began in earnest at the outset of the last century. At that time, Bangkok's relationship with Moscow was the strongest with the Western powers. That much was clear. Strange as it may seem, though, as far as relations are concerned, Thailand is looking into the past in search for tomorrow's answers.

Russia has long done away with its past and the legacy of Tsar Nicolas II, in building up its future relations. Obviously, the Thai royal trip is an important symbol to reconnect the two nations' past royal links and glories. But at the end of the day additional, extraordinary efforts are required to translate the new impetus into tangible results. Truth be told, Thai-Russian relations are narrow and shallow, as they have always been on a one-issue basis - the procurement of weapons through a barter system. Under the deposed Thaksin government, it became a cornerstone of Thai-Russian engagement. In retrospect, one always wonders why the relationship was not able to diversify or blossom as it has done in the case of other ties.

As a member of Asean, Thailand has always welcomed Russia's participation in the regional forums including the Asia Cooperative Dialogue, the Asia-Europe Meeting, the Asean Regional Forum and other regional initiatives. Bangkok sees Moscow as a countervailing force against Washington and Beijing - the very same strategy that King Chulalongkorn used quite effectively in confronting the major powers simultaneously. One can apportion the blame to the Cold War, which shaped the one-dimensional Thai-Russia relationship. The two countries were on different sides. As it was, Thailand also got caught in the cross-fire and proxy wars waged by the former Soviet Union and the US within the region. Russia used to be a strong supporter of Vietnam and its occupation of Cambodia. The Vietnam War and the Cambodian conflicts had a huge spill-over effect on Thailand's security and well-being. At the time, both sides perceived each other as enemies. The Soviet military build-up in the region, which often led to the beefing up of the US presence, was every-day news.

The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 reduced Russia's influence and power. However, in the nearly two decades since then, Russia has gone through highs and lows and numerous political crises and upheavals, and has incrementally emerged a stronger country. President Vladimir Putin's strong leadership has also instilled social order and political stability inside the country, but at a very high cost.

For the time being, luck is with Russia. With the surge in oil prices in the past several months, Russia, as the world's second-largest oil producer, is earning billions of dollars in foreign exchange. Furthermore, Moscow has shown its willingness to use its oil and gas as a diplomatic tool to reward and punish friends or foes.

But one issue immediately comes to mind. Even Russia, with that kind of income, has not shown any interest in settling a long-standing debt of over Bt50 million it owes Thailand for the purchase of half a million tonnes of rice in the 1980s. Likewise, this also demonstrates the Thai government's ineffectiveness in handling the issue and overall ties with Russia. How can the two countries think of the big picture while an issue like this continues to mar the future vision?

It is commendable that recently Thailand agreed to provide Bt100 million, the country's biggest ever fund exclusively allocated for cultural preservation overseas, to help restore the Hermitage Museum in St Petersburg, where mementos of King Chulalongkorn's visit are kept and preserved. Indeed, it was a generous endowment given by a non-oil-revenue-earning country.

To forge serious Thai-Russia relations in the years to come, the leaders of both countries must ponder all issues including strategic and non-traditional security matters. Under Thaksin, several rounds of talks were held on trade in agricultural products for the Russian-made weapons systems. Vested interest reined in all transactions. As it turned out, too many brokers inside both countries were involved and this in effect either delayed or destroyed the deals altogether. Strategic interest was secondary.

As the scandalous barter deals became widespread, Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont issued an executive order in November to halt all such dubious food-for-guns schemes. Brokers continue to entertain hopes that after this government is gone in a few months, new deals will be possible.

Most troubling however has been the recent decision by Russia's state atomic agency to build a nuclear reactor in Burma. Apart from international concerns, Thai military leaders have privately expressed concern that Burma's nuclear capacity will increase and could also ignite the nuclear technological race. Of course, none of them believe that Burma would have the ability to build nuclear weapons for now but the fear lingers in the air. Such is the paradox of Thai-Russian relations today.

Kavi Chongkittavorn