Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) has revised its earnings-growth estimate for listed companies this year upwards, from 3 per cent to 5 per cent, given last month's robust export growth and the clearer political outlook.

Thailand's largest broker has raised the country's gross domestic product growth forecast from 3.8 to 4.5 per cent to the top end at 4.5 per cent, said CEO Montree Sornpaisarn.

The broker has also upgraded its earnings-growth prediction for Thai-listed companies next year from 10 per cent to 11 per cent.

Thailand's economic growth in the second half of this year should improve after the general election to be held in November or December and as a result of the prevailing robust export growth, he said.

"Foreign investors have a bullish view of the Thai stock market, as seen by the fact that they have continuously accumulated Thai shares. Foreign investors have become net buyers of Thai shares to the tune of Bt95.6 billion since January. In addition, the Thai stock market's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 11, compared with 17 for Hong Kong and Malaysia. Thai shares are cheaper," he said.

Montree said the improved sentiment in the Thai stock market was a barometer of greater investor confidence in Thailand's economy.

"The stock market is the first indicator to show whether people are confident about a country's economy. A stock-market slump is always seen ahead of negative factors that affect the economy," he said.

Earlier, CLSA Securities (Thailand) had increased its investment weighting in the Thai stock market from zero to 1 per cent.

Montree said the company's market-share target of 8-9 per cent this year was achievable. The target level will allow Kim Eng to secure its leadership foothold in the Thai stock market, he said.

The company is involved in the initial public offering process of three companies that will seek listing this year, he said. He could not reveal details of the firms.

Siriporn     Chanjindamanee

The Nation