It looks very much so.

Sunai Manomai-udom, the director-general of the Department of Special Investigation (DSI), has threatened to lodge an extradition charge against Thaksin if he fails to show up in due course in Bangkok.

The DSI has ordered Thaksin and others to report to it between June 26 and 29 to acknowledge the criminal charges against them for alleged stock concealment in SC Asset before the property firm went public.

If Thaksin, who is now living in exile in London, fails to show up without justification, the DSI will pass the case on to public prosecutors for a formal criminal charge in the justice process. The next step is that the Thai government will request the UK government to extradite Thaksin back to Thailand to stand trial.

"We understand that seeking an extradition request from Britain is very difficult because the defendant has a right to defend himself. Thaksin might fight the extradition charge by arguing that he is a subject of political prosecution. Besides, he can argue that he is being unfairly treated," said Sunai.

"But his arguments would not stand because the DSI is pursuing a criminal case - not a political one. DSI is

not treating him unfairly. The DSI was not set up by the National Security Council. Moreover, I am also a judge."

Britain might have to reluctantly handle another high-profile extradition case involving Thailand's former prime minister, who was ousted from office by a military coup.

It is a general understanding that the British government would not want to get involved in this matter, which could complicate its relations with Thailand. Preferably, it would like Thaksin to live quietly in London and renew his visa when it expires.

In the most recent case, the Thai government sought an extradition request against Pin Chakkaphak, the former chief of Finance One Group, which went under in the 1997 financial crisis.

Pin, who holds both American and Thai citizenship, sought to defend his extradition case in the UK, which has a rather tough law in favour of defendants. Pin argued that he should not be sent back to Thailand because there was no evidence of financial fraud against him. Besides, he was not sure that he would receive a fair trial because the Thai justice process was not equipped with a jury system. The Thai government lost the legal battle.

The extradition case against Rakesh Saxena, who was accused of cheating the now-defunct Bangkok Bank of Commerce, is not going anywhere. Rakesh is now seeking exile in Vancouver, Canada.

 One political observer said matters relating to an extradition treaty with any country would be a long and time-consuming process and would not be to anybody's advantage.

He said most Western countries that had concluded extradition treaties with Thailand would have to examine if there would be a "free and fair trial" by independent courts before considering such a request.

Thaksin has also adopted a cautious strategy by agreeing to buy Manchester City Football Club for £81.6 million (Bt5.4 billion).

Another political observer believes Thaksin will eventually acquire the English club in order to improve his chances of avoiding extradition. By owning Manchester City, Thaksin can apply for permanent resident status with the British government. This would make it even more difficult for the Thai government to seek his extradition.

Thaksin has also been appealing to the international community that he was an democratically elected leader who was ousted by an illegal military coup.

Earlier this year, whenever a question arose about the proper timing for Thaksin to be allowed to return to Thailand, Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont would reply that the best timing for him would be after the general election when there was more political stability.

"But now Surayud looks much more confident. He has even challenged Thaksin to return. The question is whether Thaksin really has the guts to come back because he would certainly have to go to jail," said one Cabinet minister.

Political Desk

The Nation