At this point, there are only three contenders, but we can only identify two of them. Abhisit Vejjajiva of the Democrat Party is rolling up his sleeves and is ready to take on the challenge. He can be considered a front-runner.

But do not underestimate Banharn Silapa-archa, leader of the Chat Thai Party. He would really like to make a comeback as prime minister.

Then you have to watch for the third candidate, whose identity has yet to be revealed. We will have to wait a little bit longer to see whether military officials currently in power really want to have their own political party. If they do want to hang on in politics, then they would have to handpick their nominee so they could critically shape the outcome of the election.

For now, you can write off ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's Thai Rak Thai. The party has been dissolved and its leader is facing a load of lawsuits. Thaksin will never return to power. The remnants of the Thai Rak Thai Party have been broken up and they can't regroup to become a force in the next election.

Thaksin is spending his money happily in London, while he urges his supporters at home to fight on. The core instigators have reportedly siphoned off half the money earmarked to support street demonstrations against the Council of National Security (CNS). The protests should fizzle out soon now that the election has been rescheduled sooner, with a tentative date of November 25, rather than December 16 or 23.

Abhisit, 43, looks confident that he will be able to lead the next coalition government if his Democrat Party can win the highest number of MP seats. Most people around him believe that he is ready to take on the leadership. If he can't make it now, he will not have another chance. Abhisit will have to work for the premiership the old-fashioned way: he has to earn it.

The Democrats may muster 110 or 120 seats out of the total 400. That represents a share of slightly more than 20 per cent. There is a long way to go for the Democrats to even dream of getting majority control. But if Abhisit can garner support from Banharn's Chat Thai, Sanan Kachornprasart's Mahachon, and Suwat Liptapanlop's Saman Chan Group, he might be able to reach for the stars.

Suwat was an executive member of the Thai Rak Thai and has been barred from politics for five years. But his wife and his relatives are ready to take over in Nakhon Ratchasima, his home base. Suwat understands the political game perfectly. He won't go back to the Thaksin clique.

But Banharn, 75, is never too old to stay away from politics. He is also waiting in the wings for his chance to become prime minister for the second time. His premiership in 1996 proved short-lived and disastrous, preceding the economic and financial crises that followed.

Last year Banharn invited Thaksin, who was then reeling from the Shin Corp crisis, for shark-fin soup and a chat. He proposed that Thaksin step aside for a while to cool the political heat and that he could become prime minister instead. This should have worked out well for Thaksin, who did not trust anybody within the Thai Rak Thai ranks enough to appoint a successor.

This plan never materialised, as Thaksin was confident that the elections would give him a popular mandate once again. Banharn later reluctantly joined Abhisit to boycott the April 2 election, which triggered the full-blown political crisis.

Banharn's Chat Thai might get 50 MPs in the next election. He has already talked over re-establishing old ties with Newin Chidchob. Newin, another banned Thai Rak Thai executive, will command some 30 MPs behind the scene from his Buri Ram stronghold. With the support of 80 MPs, Banharn might want to spring a surprise and go for the premiership.

But the political game could tilt toward CNS-linked military officials, if they go ahead and form a new political party with support from the likes of Somsak Thepsuthin and other MPs from the Northeast. They will need a strong candidate to represent them as prime minister. It is too early to see the face of this new party.

Supachai Panitchpakdi, secretary-general of the UN Conference on Trade and Development, has been ruled out of the premiership race because he would never do anything to hurt Chuan Leekpai, the mentor of the Democrat Party. Chuan was the key person behind Supachai's successful campaign to win the top job at the World Trade Organisation. Chuan is now going ahead full on to support Abhisit.

So it is now highly likely that the new constitution will be put to a vote and sail through the national referendum on August 19, followed by an election on November 25 or shortly thereafter.

One of the key things to watch for is the introduction of a new election law, which will be pretty tough against fraud. This will reshape the political landscape in a significant way because a toughened election law will help new faces make it into Parliament. By the time we have a government up and running next year, Thailand should recover from its political malaise. And economic growth should bounce back from 4 per cent to more than 5 per cent.

Thanong Khanthong