Hard-pressed by what seems to be never-ending turmoil, power brokers are working overtime in search of Mr X who will, hopefully, restore political normalcy and revitalise the sluggish economy.

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva is the lead contender for the premiership but Mr X may be a dark horse winner. In the next few months, the identity of Mr X will be revealed if powerbrokers can convince him to abandon his cushioned life for a career in public service.

After the disbandment of the Thai Rak Thai Party, the political playing field should have tilted heavily to favour Abhisit. But this doesn't seem to have happened. Abhisit is not about to enjoy a one-horse race and his chance of leading the next government is not a sure thing. The popularity of the Democrats in the Northeast has not improved markedly. And the region is inevitably the decisive battleground to install the new PM.

Abhisit is facing a big hurdle to win allies in order to garner enough support for a coalition.

Until he can sway the public to rally behind him, it is no surprise that Chat Thai Party leader Banharn Silapa-archa, and his Mahachon counterpart Sanan Kachornprasart, continue to give lukewarm endorsement to his premiership bid.

Behind the scenes, many top generals in the junta have been concerned about inflaming political animosity if Abhisit achieves an electoral victory at the expense of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

Pro-Thaksin politicians may stir up trouble just for spite.

Leaks from the military corridors indicate the next premier might be from a roster of leading figures, like Supachai Panitchpakdi, head of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, and Sumet Tantivejkul, secretary-general of the Chai Pattana Foundation.

If the senior officers could have their one wish fulfilled, they would want to install junta chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin at the government's helm. But they may have to settle for a civilian leader under the circumstances.

Within a few weeks, the National Legislative Assembly is expected to enact new legislation allowing for the registration of new parties.

Around the time of the referendum for the new constitution, Mr X may emerge under the banner of either an established party or a newly-formed one.

Political titans like Banharn, Sanan and Snoh Thienthong of Pracharat Party are standing ready to welcome a fresh-faced leader who could help ensure a proper place for them in the corridors of power.

They are not expecting to lead the coalition and would prefer the role of political mentor.

Should Mr X choose to enter politics via a new banner, he will have several options.

Political veterans such as Suwat Liptapanlop and Somsak Thepsuthin are poised to launch new parties from the remnants of Thai Rak Thai. Suwat and Somsak maintain close ties to both the military and bureaucrats and have the potential to secure the junta's blessing to catapult Mr X into power - or opt to ally with Abhisit. The two have been banned from the electoral process but this would not stop them working via nominees.

Former prime minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh is lurking around for the right time to resume politicking. The 75-year-old Chavalit appears to have been pushing back the date for coming out of retirement because he is uncertain about his future. He does not want to end up in opposition but may not have a choice if he fails to win the junta's backing.

Many former MPs from the Northeast want to rally behind his banner. But he is facing a dilemma in making up his mind. If he chooses to revive the New Aspiration Party or hoist a new banner, he may remain in good grace with the junta but has insufficient coffers to become a strong voice. Should he opt to rebrand Thai Rak Thai, he might have a huge war chest but end up further alienating himself from the military, seen as his political anchor.

Some 30 to 40 former MPs and die-hard Thaksin supporters are planning to campaign to boost Thaksin's popularity and this might cause friction between him and the military establishment. In the last resort, he may have a surprise up his sleeve by allying himself with Mr X.

With the political landscape transformed by the May 30 verdict, curtailing the career of 111 political titans for five years, voters will have the final say on their new leader - Abhisit or Mr X.

Avudh Panananda

The Nation