By accident or design, junta chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin and ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra both find themselves in a tight corner and face politically fatal risks if they make just one wrong move.

Amid pro-Thaksin protests - disguised as anti-junta battle cries - and stern warnings of anti-riot measures, many have confused the junta-Thaksin posturing with a war dance. But this is actually a funeral dance.

The question is whose funeral it is going to be - Thaksin's or Sonthi's?

At stake are the future of Thailand and whether Thai politicking will reflect the people's aspirations or become the pretext for selected capitalists to plunder the nation.

Back in September when the military dethroned Thaksin, Sonthi justified his action by promising to smoke out graft violations plaguing the ousted government.

Even though some 13 graft probes have been progressing at a snail's pace, it is becoming increasingly clear that Thaksin and his wife Khunying Pojaman might end up spending their retirement in jail instead of in theluxury accorded to the billionaires' club.

Based on comments relayed by his lawyers and close aides, Thaksin sees himself as a political victim and is determined to put up a rigorous defence to clear his name.

He also appears to harbour hopes of a comeback in order to revive his populist policies as a permanent fixture in Thai politics.

Contrary to his projected image of life in retirement, his actions indicate an active engagement in politics. He and his diehard supporters are busy swaying the public mood.

Unlike other deposed Thai leaders, Thaksin refuses to exit gracefully and quietly. Instead he has opted to fight back by manipulating the court of public opinion to rig due process.

Unfortunately, the tougher a fight he puts up, the stronger the legal measures the junta will slap on him.

After the May 30 verdict to disband the Thai Rak Thai Party, all gloves are off. Thaksin's supporters have launch full-throttled attacks by mobilising street protests against the junta.

In what is seen as a retaliatory move, graft busters have frozen assets worth Bt52 billion belonging to Thaksin, Pojaman and their associates.

The asset-impounding order was justified by the discovery that Bt21 billion of Thaksin's money had vanished without trace.

Sonthi and Thaksin have escalated their power struggle to a point where the two cannot wriggle their way

out before annihilating the other.

If Sonthi is to successfully hand power back to the elected government and ensure his safe exit, he cannot afford to have Thaksin remain as a thorn in his side.

Known as a staunch family man, Thaksin realises that his family is on the brink of ruin unless he can obliterate the junta.

Rumours have been spreading in the streets that Thaksin's supporters are determined to provoke the junta to fire a "first shot" to spill blood in the streets, triggering an uprising to topple the military.

Last weekend anti-junta protesters organised a march to test the anti-riot measures. This weekend or the next, protest organisers will likely step up their provocative tactics.

The junta remains upbeat about reining in the protesters on the assumption that authorities can convince key organisers to withdraw from demonstrations. It is pinning its hopes on the sensibility of political activists to put the nation before the fate of Thaksin.

In ancient Rome, crowds cheered on the gladiators and the wounded beasts trying to snuff out one another while their empire was crumbling before their eyes.

Let's hope and pray for Sonthi and Thaksin to finish their endgame without harming the Kingdom.

Avudh Panananda

The Nation