On one hand, it could help block financial support for anti-coup and anti-government protesters.

One the other hand, it could be like adding fuel to the fire by unavoidably provoking Thaksin lovers. The situation may then spin out of control, affecting the drafting of a new constitution and the national referendum, as well as the election scheduled for the end of the year.

This carries profound political significance. Key Thai Rak Thai members, in disarray after the party-dissolution order, will have their hopes of regrouping all but dashed.

Without funding from Thaksin, it will be very difficult to keep the restless former MPs together.

The assets-freezing order has also come at a time when protests against the coup-makers and Surayud government are gaining momentum. Those protests are believed jointly organised by Thaksin's supporters and others genuinely opposed to the coup.

While the assets freeze will not affect the anti-coup activists, it will rock the pro-Thai Rak Thai protesters hard.

However, it looked like a perfect script for a thriller from the outset.

First, Thaksin Shinawatra's name and reputation had to be destroyed. Sondhi Limthongkul and the People's Alliance for Democracy did this job.

Second, he needed to be removed from power, because if left unchecked, he would have further brought the whole country under his iron rule. General Sonthi Boonyaratglin staged the coup last September 19 to oust Thaksin.

Third, Thaksin's political regime and legacy had to be uprooted. On May 30, the Constitution Tribunal handed down harsh verdicts dissolving the Thai Rak Thai Party set up by Thaksin nine years ago. The Constitution Tribunal also banned 111 executive Thai Rak Thai members, including Thaksin, from politics for five years.

And finally, Thaksin's assets, gained through shady deals and policy corruption, must be frozen and subsequently seized by the state. Yesterday, the AEC dropped a bombshell by ordering a freeze on all of the money and bank accounts of Thaksin and his wife, Pojaman.

There remains Bt52.8 billion out of the Bt73.3 billion in proceeds that Thaksin and Pojaman earned from the sale of Shin Corp shares to Temasek Holdings of Singapore in January 2006. This huge amount of money has been parked in 21 bank accounts, which are now frozen.

The AEC also ordered a freeze on all of the remaining bank accounts of Thaksin and Pojaman.

It should be noted that Thaksin and Pojaman's money is being frozen, not seized. The AEC will now lodge charges of asset concealment or policy corruption against Thaksin and Pojaman in court.

If found guilty, Thaksin and Pojaman's money will be seized by the state; if found not guilty, then Thaksin and Pojaman will have their money returned to them.

Thaksin and Pojaman should not be sleeping well for a while. There are 13 cases, including the Ratchadaphisek land purchase and the CTX scandal, related directly or indirectly to Thaksin that are awaiting the judicial process.

The Shin deal is one case to watch, because Thaksin allegedly moved 10 per cent of his holdings in this company into Ample Rich Investments, incorporated in the British Virgin Islands. Before the sale of Shin shares to Temasek, this 10-per-cent stake went through a series of tax-free transactions involving son Panthongtae and daughter Pinthongta before being sold on the stock exchange to Temasek.

In 2001, Thaksin narrowly escaped a Constitution Court verdict on asset concealment. At that time, he admitted to having made an "honest mistake" by parking his assets with his household maids and drivers. The Shin deal represents episode two of Thaksin's alleged asset concealment, which could have violated the Constitution if he were to be found guilty of deliberately concealing his assets.

On Sunday, Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont sought to pre-empt any possible violent incidents that might follow yesterday's AEC announcement freezing Thaksin and Pojaman's bank accounts.

He attacked Thaksin directly for managing the country in such a way that enriched himself and those surrounding him. He alleged the Thaksin regime represented the most corrupt of governments, one that had destroyed the rule of law in the Kingdom. Surayud also reached out to Thai Rak Thai supporters, urging them to accept the Constitution Tribunal's verdict.

One may question why the freeze has come at this time, considering that the National Peace Keeping Council froze the then-Cabinet's assets immediately following the 1991 coup. Is it because the Council for National Security has tried to show its generous manner and that it follows the rule of law? Or is it because the AEC has recently uncovered strong and convincing new evidence of Thaksin's corruption?

Will Thaksin become poorer by this dramatic freeze - and possible seizure - of his assets? After the Shin sale, Thaksin and Pojaman were practically handcuffed to their money, because they could not transfer the Bt73.3 billion in proceeds out of the country. The Bank of Thailand has been keeping a watchful eye on any transactions involving their money.

A banker once said the couple had more than Bt100 billion in Thailand, the balance made up by properties and other assets. "If all of these assets are seized, then he will have only his pants left, because the amount is quite sizeable," he said.

But as a good businessman, Thaksin would never put all his money in one basket. One accountant believes Thaksin also has a substantial amount of money in foreign bank accounts or held by other nominees.

The Political Desk

The Nation