What will the Thai political landscape look like going into the next election now that 111 executive members of the defunct Thai Rak Thai Party have been banned from politics for five years? Will Thaksin Shinawatra continue to bankroll a new party that will carry on with the remnants of Thai Rak Thai? Is it going to be a two-party race or a multi-party race? Which party will form the next government?

Maybe it is too early to address these questions since Thai politics is still facing downside risks. First, remnants of the Thai Rak Thai will try to seek amnesty for the 111 executive members banned from politics. But nobody knows at this point what form the amnesty will take. Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the Army chief, raised the possibility of an amnesty, but he was forced to backtrack a day later. The matter is not going to end easily yet.

Second, the southern unrest has continued to pose a serious threat to national security as a whole.

Third, the economic conditions are also very worrisome. Although the stock market has staged a temporary rebound, the Saha Group has faced minus sales growth for the first time in its 60-year history, reflecting the low ebb of consumer confidence and also the dwindling purchasing power of the Thai people. Investment is weak. Vietnam has also overtaken Thailand as a destination for foreign direct investment.

Fourth, nobody knows what the new constitution will look like. Will it be acceptable to most of the Thai people?

Fifth, the Surayud government has not spelled out clearly what it would need to accomplish before it cedes power in order to form the next generation election. Besides, the Asset Examination Committee has been slow in its tedious task to wrap up corruption cases against key personalities in the previous government.

 All of these factors have to unravel more clearly before we can look ahead to the new election. However, at this point, signs are emerging that the remnants of the Thai Rak Thai are breaking apart after the historic ruling of the Constitution Tribunal last week.

Suwat Liptapanlop, Pinij Charusombat, Suwit Khunkitti and Preecha Laohapongchana have already announced a breakaway from the Thai Rak Thai Group to form a new political party. Although they are barred from politics, they still hope to exercise their influence behind the scenes. They claim that they have about 50 MPs under their control.

 Somsak Thepsuthin has formed his Matchima group as another breakaway from Thai Rak Thai, while Dr Somkid Jatusripitak has attempted to create a Thammathipatai party with 20 members. Both also faced the harsh political ban. Somsak's group has claimed to have 100 former MPs under its wings, although this number might be substantially exaggerated. And there are reports that the former MPs under Somsak's group have decided to return to the Thai Rak Thai group.

Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, 75, might be too old to revive his New Aspiration Party and he might not have the money necessary to do so.

Political sources have indicated that Thaksin Shinawatra has cut off his financing to the remnants of Thai Rak Thai for now. Given the outlook of new criminal cases to be lodged against him, it is likely it would be difficult for the Thai Rak Thai Group to bring at least 260 MPs under the same roof again, necessary to form the new government.

The Democrat Party, which has emerged unscathed from the rulings from the Constitution Tribunal, looks the most stable at this point. It has allied with the Chat Thai Party and the Mahachon Party.

Again, it is too early to estimate whether the Democrat and other coalition partners will be able to muster at least 260 MPs to form the next government.

One Democrat member said going into the next election, the Democrats are confident they will get the South, Bangkok and parts of the central and northern regions. He admits the Northeast, which is the strong base of the Thai Rak Thai Group, is still the biggest challenge for the Democrats, who hardly have any representatives there at all.

Political Desk

The Nation