First of all, the Democrats are currently more concerned about the unrest in southern Thailand - their electoral stronghold - where the situation appears to be worsening by the day. On Friday, the Democrat leader and his aides visited the region to observe the latest developments after the death toll from the previous day's violence reached 21, including the death of 12 soldiers in a roadside bombing and ambush by separatists.

Secondly, several party executives fear the task of getting the new charter endorsed by voters in the upcoming national referendum will be daunting.

The likelihood of the charter being rejected has risen in the wake of the Constitution Tribunal's May 30 verdict against the Thai Rak Thai and its executives, given that many of the party's 14 million members nationwide could be persuaded to vote against it.

In fact the planned national referendum on the charter is unprecedented and politically risky as voters can only vote for or against the entire draft. This means that a person unhappy with just one part of the charter, which has a total of 299 sections, would be tempted to reject the entire constitution.

It will cost taxpayers around Bt2 billion to organise the referendum some time in September. If the charter is turned down it would be money down the drain and, more importantly, the current political divide will widen.

The exit clause for the Council for National Security (CNS) in the event the charter is rejected is to adopt one of the country's 17 previous charters with whatever amendments it sees fit. In that case, the country would have to live with a military-sanctioned charter.

Third, it's still unclear how former Thai Rak Thai executives, especially former party leader and premier Thaksin Shinawatra, will respond to the Constitutional Tribunal's harsher-than-expected verdict. Any untoward action by these people and their supporters nationwide could have significant impact on the course of politics in coming months, during which the situation is likely to continue to be fluid and fragile.

Fourth, the Democrats are increasingly worried about the fallout of the protracted political problems with the economy. Only one engine of growth, the export sector, is still working properly, whereas eroding confidence has severely hurt domestic consumption and private investment, which are the other key drivers of economic growth.

Affected by political uncertainty, the Thai economic growth rate has lagged behind the average 5-6 per cent annual growth recorded by other Asean member countries. Vietnam, for instance, is witnessing an economic growth as high as 9 per cent per annum, while its political stability and economic potential have so far attracted as much as US$8 billion (Bt276.5 billion) in foreign direct investment this year.

Most Democrats are, undoubtedly, hopeful their party will return to power soon, given that they were completely exonerated by the Constitution Tribunal in a related verdict for alleged election fraud.

At this stage, the 60-year-old party, Thailand's oldest, can only hope that luck is on its side, with the next general election held on schedule in December this year.

Nophakhun Limsamarnphun

 nop1122@yahoo.com