Following His Majesty the King voicing his concern over the impending verdict of the Constitution Tribunal last week, speculation is now tilting toward a result in which the Democrat and Thai Rak Thai parties would not be dissolved, though some party members might be banned from politics for five years.

The Tribunal will rule on the fate of two major and three minor parties on Wednesday, but all eyes are focused on the Democrats and Thai Rak Thai.

Dr Parinya Dhevaniramitkul, a law lecturer at Thammasat University's Faculty of Law, argued that in the general rule of law, individuals will only face punishment according to their guilt. Since political parties are separated entities from individual members, they would only be sentenced to dissolution, which amounts to capital punishment, only if they are proved to have committed serious offences.

"Actions on the part of some party members cannot be linked to the actions of the parties, even though the party members might do so for the benefit of their parties," he said. "We cannot conclude that the parties should be held responsible for those actions to the extent that they should be dissolved."

For instance, he said, if a director of a company commits a criminal offence and even if he does so for the benefit of the company, he should be held accountable for his offences alone - not the entire company that must be subject to dissolution.

To dissolve political parties for the criminal offences, Parinya argued that there must be compelling evidence to prove that most of the executive members of the political parties including their leaders were aware of the offences committed.

"Political parties are like companies. We have to look closely as to whether the offences are committed by individuals or by the parties themselves," he added.

Last week His Majesty the King addressed a delegation of judges and expressed his concern over the impending verdict of the Constitution Tribunal on the fate of the political parties. The King pointed out that whatever verdict is reached there would be dissatisfaction. But he advised the judges to bear in mind the rule of law and righteousness when they vote or express their opinions in the verdict.

This marked yet another rare appearance of His Majesty the King, who acts as a pillar of stability of the country. Last year he also addressed the judges over the irregularities in the April 2 election outcome. Subsequently, the Constitution Court and the Supreme Court handed down landmark verdicts that led to the nullification of the April 2 election.

Political sources said the likelihood of the Constitution Tribunal's verdict is that the Democrat Party and Thai Rak Thai are not going to be dissolved because doing so would deprive the country of strong political parties to participate in the democratic process.

"Clerks and staff are now working on the legal opinions of the case frantically. We expect that the two parties will not be dissolved," said one political source.

Some key members of the Democrat Party have also expressed hope privately that their party would not be dissolved. "The key question on the ban of the politicians from politics is the law the Constitution Tribunal will use if it is to make a decision in this particular ruling," said a Democrat member.

If the political parties are dissolved, the executive members would be banned from politics. But the contentious legal issue is whether a ruling on banning certain politicians lies within the legal boundaries.

The 27th revolutionary decree, announced on September 30, 2006, deems that executive members of the political parties are subject to a ban from politics for five years if their political parties are dissolved. But Parinya said the question is whether the revolutionary decree is retroactive or not since the alleged election frauds committed by the Democrat Party and the Thai Rak Thai Party took place before April 2, 2006.

The military issued the revolutionary decree because they want to dissolve Thak Rai Thai in order to dismantle the political influence of Thaksin Shinawatra.

 Parinya said the rule of law does not permit the executive members of political parties to receive the punishment retroactively. Therefore, it is impossible to dissolve the political parties and also at the same time to ban some executive members from politics for five years.

This will leave the Constitution Tribunal with two options - to ban all executive members from politics or not ban any one of them at all.

Parinya suggested that what the Election Commission could do as the best way out is to go after individual executive members of the political parties who have been alleged to be involved in electoral fraud - whatever the outcome of the Constitution Tribunal is. This should be a better course of action rather than trying to seek the dissolution of the political parties.

Roadblocks to check protesters

NORTH

Over 500 police officers from Chiang Rai province are being mobilised to watch demonstrators who are preparing to protest against the Constitution Tribunal's rulings on electoral fraud cases in Bangkok tomorrow.

The police also plan to set up checkpoints to block cars that contain provisions for demonstrators.

However, a car rental operator in Chiang Mai yesterday said the police checkpoint might be too late because some protestors have already travelled from Chiang Mai to the capital. He said both Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai residents have hired cars to go to Bangkok and nearby provinces.

Meanwhile, there have been rumours that certain politicians in Chiang Mai have given Bt5,000 each to supporters of a major party who go to the court and party headquarters to offer support before the verdict is read.

A Chiang Mai transport officer said that even though there are reports of many people going to Bangkok, the number of passengers leaving the province had not increased as expected.

Phitsanulok deputy governor Santi Krusuansombat has ordered all provincial police divisions to monitor the movement of people and politicians. The provincial police and military will set up checkpoints on main roads to stop protesters from going to Bangkok.

"If our officials find demonstrators heading to the Constitution Tribunal for the ruling, we will reason with them first and then prevent them from continuing," Santi said.

NORTHEAST

Khon Kaen police and more than 30 army officers have set up three checkpoints to prevent demonstrators heading for Bangkok. The checkpoints are at Ban Samran on Mittraphap Road in Mueng district, Ban Nong No in Ban Pai district and in Chum Pae district.

The police would also record the details of drivers and vehicles leaving from Khon Kaen and heading to Bangkok.

In Chaiyaphum, provincial police and the Second Army support command have set up four checkpoints on routes to Bangkok. The checkpoints are at Nong Bua Kok in Thepsatit district, Chong Sam Mo in Kaeng Kro district and Lad Yai in Muang district.

The police and the military are also checking the movements of former Chaiyaphum MPs.

Second Army area officials and Nakhon Ratchasima police have set up checkpoints to inspect people and vehicles at train and bus stations.

The police found that a lot of people were departing from Nakhon Ratchasima, but most noted travellers said they were going to Bangkok to look for work or to meet relatives.

In Nakhon Ratchasima yesterday political activists handed out copies of a VCD that praised the achievements of deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra during his five years in power. However, the police said they could not arrest anyone and they had no authority to seize the VCDs.

Political Desk

The Nation