Not since the verdict was pending in the assets concealment case against then prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has the country been in such a state of political suspense.

It shouldn't come as any surprise if some overly concerned families are beginning to stock up on food or if panicky investors are offloading shares in their portfolios ahead of the so-called "Judgement Day" tomorrow. For these people, signs of trouble are too obvious to ignore.

Despite all the assurances from the government and the military to the contrary, the spectre of street violence hanging over the ruling by the Constitutional Tribunal on the fate of the Thai Rak Thai and Democrat parties cannot be underestimated. Intelligence reports have all pointed to the possibility of coordinated agitation by Thaksin's supporters, who want nothing short of a total vindication for the former prime minister and his party.

Thaksin may be in exile thousands of miles away, but there is no denying what the political machine he left behind is capable of doing at the snap of his fingers. Thaksin definitely has not been funnelling in huge amounts of money to remnants of his Thai Rak Thai Party and its grassroots network for charitable purposes. The former leader has too much at stake both in terms of his wealth and his political survival to watch events unfold from afar without trying to interfere.

Thaksin made it clear in his recent interview with a community radio station with avowed loyalty to the former prime minister that he was not going to give up without a fight. Of course, despite all the bitter feelings he generated under his five-year authoritarian rule, the businessman-turned-politician had no regrets to offer. It's no surprise then that he chooses to see all the charges of abuse of power and conflicts of interest made against him and his family as nothing more than political retribution. And he has fervently urged his supporters back home to see it that way too.

While the potential of political backlash shouldn't in any way influence the verdict of the nine judges on the Constitution Tribunal, His Majesty has, nevertheless, reminded the panel to be mindful of its consequences. There is a general consensus that whatever ruling is handed down by the Constitution Tribunal, it will have a far-reaching impact on this country's political future.

The worst-case scenario is that both the Democrat and Thai Rak Thai parties are dissolved and all party executives banned from politics for five years in accordance with Decree No 27 introduced by the Council for National Security (CNS) in the aftermath of the September 19 coup. Not only would the whole lot of political veterans who were instrumental in shaping Thailand's politics for the past several years be denied any political role, but it would also set the stage for potential street violence.

It's an open secret that some generals in the CNS are praying for exactly that to happen. In one stroke, they would be able to get rid of Thaksin and his Thai Rak Thai Party once and for all and at the same time assure the military a dominant role in the subsequent political realignment. In other words, political fragmentation would allow the military to hold sway over future politics.

There have been talks lately about a possible compromise whereby selective punishment would be meted out to the leaders of the two parties. Only those directly implicated would be targeted. While a handful of party executives (most likely the party's leaders, secretaries-general and a few others) would be banned from politics, those who survive could immediately found and register new parties for the promised election.

Though this proposed compromise would be less painful and shocking than a wholesale purge of the two parties, there is no guarantee that it would end the ongoing agitation efforts by Thaksin supporters. There is also a big question mark as to whether the Constitution Tribunal can be selective in its judgement and whether its ruling should be influenced by political considerations.

Despite all the threats of violence and the unpalatable political consequences, there is the rule of law that needs to be upheld. His Majesty's caution that whatever the ruling there would be damaging fallout shouldn't in any way be interpreted as a hint toward compromise. His emphasis on "correctness" should also not be lost on anyone.

More often than not, Thailand has seen the rule of law bent to accommodate political expediency. We have tended to tackle problems or deal with crises the "Thai way" and have lost the opportunity to set legal or political benchmarks that would help us become better prepared for new challenges.

The nine judges of the Constitution Tribunal have Thailand's political future in their hands. And this definitely is no time for political expediency or compromise. Whatever their verdict is, it must be based on facts. At this very crucial political junction, we have no other choice but to the let the rule of law prevail.

Thepchai Yong

The Nation